Thursday, June 17, 2010

Game 7- LA's Championship to Lose


(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

I really didn't feel there was a need for a Game 7 Preview after the Lakers easily beat the Celtics in Game 6. If the Lakers don't have a letdown then they should easily win tonight.

Using length, quickness, and ball movement, I predicted that LA would dominate this series as long as Bynum contributed. That has pretty much held true with Bynum logging 25+ minutes in 4 of the 5 first games and cancelling out Perkins in Game 6. Without Perkins, the Lakers can penetrate with ease and grab rebounds (52-39 in Game 6) on both ends of the court. This opens up uncontested perimeter shots or offensive put-backs.

There are a few things that may prevent LA from celebrating:

Consistently Inconsistent

Heading into Game 6 the Lakers were very focused since they were facing elimination. They dominated most of the game but espescially the first half. However, during the third quarter the Lakers struggled through a handful of offensive plays- walk the ball up, pass around the perimeter, stand around, & take a bad shot as the 24 runs out. Following Game 6 all they've heard about is how dominant they were, the Perkins injury, and how a Lakers victory would impact Kobe/Phil and Lakers vs Celtics. 

The Lakers need to be motivated (and somewhat angry) to play their best basketball. I'm not sure if they're in the right frame of mind to put together another dominating effort. 

Good Ron or Bad Ron?

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

Ron Artest had 15 point and hit 3 three's in Game 1 and Game 6. Outside of those two games he hasn't shot over 50% or scored over 10 points. If Ron is hitting shots then the Celtics will pay for doubling Kobe and Pau. Which Ron will show up?

Better Bench Production from Boston


I think we can safely assume that the Celtics' reserves will play better than they did in Game 6. Look for Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to score 15-20 especially since Wallace will probably start. Wallace can change the game because he stretches LA's defense. This will give Garnett, Allen, Pierce, and Rondo more room to operate without the fear of a double team. In Game 6 Wallace missed 6 three's and was 0-7.

Well-Rested Old Celtics

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Game 6 was less than 48 hours after Game 5 and a cross-country flight. This scenario favored the Lakers who are younger and had the home court advantage. Now the Celtics are well rested with two nights in LA and no cross-country flight. Plus, they really didn't put out a max effort in Game 6 with most of the starters playing few minutes in the second half. With more rest, the older Celtics will have better energy and more lift in their jump shots.

A Different Team Without Perk

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

With Wallace and Davis playing more minutes the Celtics have more offense. They can also try to increase the tempo and use different looks to confuse the Lakers. In Game 6 Doc Rivers experimented with a two pg lineup (Rondo and Robinson) and then a two sg lineup (Tony Allen and Ray Allen). This could cause the Lakers problems since Boston has had two days work on a this new offensive strategy.

This is the End

The Lakers have everything going for them so long as they stay focused they should beat Boston. Whatever changes the Celtics make, they shouldn't bother the Lakers, who have the personnel to overcome any adjustments.

But this is now a one-game series with immense pressure primarily on the Lakers' side. Pierce could get hot, Allen could hit 10 three's, an injury to the Lakers, or something else could tip the scales in the Celtics' favor. Stranger things have happened & history is not on the Lakers' side- Don Nelson's shot, 9 straight Celtics championships over the Lakers, and a Game 7 home loss to Boston in the 1969 NBA Finals.

No comments:

Post a Comment