Cavs Need a Healthy LeBron to Beat the Celtics

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

My last post explained why LeBron's injured elbow is so critical to the Cavs success.  When his elbow was better in game 3, he & the Cavs dominated. But his poor shooting during the other four games largely explains why the Cavs are facing elimination in Game 6 against the Celtics.

Game 6 Preview

The Cavs can only win if LeBron is healthy. And the odds of that are low when you look at what's transpired so far. LeBron has played poorly with the exception of Game 3. Through five games he's averaging 26.8 pts on 46% shooting. The 46% shooting is low for James (50% during reg. season) but still respectable. But if you take out Game 3 (14-22 fgs & 38 pts) his numbers drop considerably to 19.2 pts on 40% shooting (29/71). So really he's struggled in four of five games. 

Both Cavs' wins have come off of at least two days of rest (Game 1 on 3 days rest and Game 3 off 2 days rest). So it appears that LeBron needs more than the one day of rest between Game 5 and 6. 

It's one thing to play with an injury but it's an entirely different challenge when that injury is to your shooting arm. Also, the elbow is critical to LeBron's jump-shot. If you look at his shooting motion (above), his elbow is bent outward instead of being straight. Since his elbow isn't straight, his shot requires that his elbow control the force and direction of his release. An injured elbow explains why he's been unable to shoot confidently from the perimeter.

It's okay for LeBron to play with an injury. If he just acknowledges the injury then his teammates & coaching staff can adjust accordingly. Instead the Cavs haven't changed and they continue to look sluggish and unable to attack the Celtics sagging defense. Either his injury has to get better or the Cavs must change their offense if they want to challenge the Celtics.

What the Celtics have done right so far-

• Control game tempo. They don't want to run with Cavs who are younger and feed off of fastbreaks and attacking the hoop. 
• Garnett dominating in the post. Jamison is a small 6'9" trying to challenge a lengthy Garnett at  6'11". Garnett gets whatever shot he wants against Jamison, he's just that much bigger. This isn't Jamison's fault, the Cavs have to adjust their defense. Varejao is probably their best bet against Garnett. Try starting Varejao & moving Parker to the bench.
• Keep LeBron out of the paint. It's not the Celtics' fault that LeBron is reluctant to take outside shots. If he stays out on the perimeter then the Celtics can cover or double everyone else.
• Rondo causing havoc. He's putting up huge numbers and taking what the Cavs are giving him (more on this later). What's most impressive is his decision making & that he hasn't forced the issue even though he's wide open on every screen.    

What the Cavs have done right-

• Make Rondo beat them. Rondo has put up huge numbers but the Cavs will take their chances with Rondo trying to score instead of Pierce, Garnett, & Allen all scoring 18+. The strategy of letting Rondo score while containing everyone else would work if the Cavs were playing better on offense. 
• Containing Pierce (13.6 pts on 35% shooting through 5 games). With Rondo dribbling so much, Pierce hasn't had the ball much and has been a non-factor against the Cavs. Certainly, LeBron's defense has also made things difficult for Paul.