Monday, May 17, 2010

Lakers-Suns 2010 West Finals Preview- Lakers in 5 or 6

(Getty Images)

After a lifetime (alright, it's only been a week) the Lakers & Suns return to the court tonight in the Western Conference Finals. LA won the season series 3-1 but, apparently, you can throw that stat out the window because the Suns are a new team now that Amare isn't being shopped around. I don't buy this, or any other, arguments that have Phoenix winning or taking the Lakers past 6 games.

The Lakers are still bigger than the Suns and have the personnel to win at the Suns' own game of increasing the tempo. During the regular season, the Lakers scored 100+ in all four games and even held the Suns under 100 twice. Much has been made of the Suns' bench, but the Lakers' bench is just as good- they just don't get as many minutes since Phil plays his starters more. Since the tempo will increase, look for the Lakers to use, and get more out of, their bench. 

Phil is concerned about the Suns as indicated by his comments questioning Steve Nash's dribbling. When asked if the Lakers were having trouble simulating Steve Nash, he accused Nash of a carrying violation- “Yeah, because you can’t carry the ball like he does in practice.... can’t pick that ball up and run with it.”
(tried to embed this video directly from NBA.com, but the embed curiously pointed to another a video soon after embedding.....conspiracy theorists, add this to your list)
This is a compliment to Nash & the Suns because it shows he's concerned with them. Jackson needled Durant before the OKC series but had nothing to say about Deron Williams- who also clearly carry's the ball- when the Lakers played the Jazz.


 (watch Nash carry not once, but twice)
Phil's correctly pointing out that Nash does carry the ball on most pick-and-rolls. When he goes around the screen, carrying the ball gives Nash two options- 1) if defender #2 steps up, bounce-pass between defenders and hit the screener 2) if defender #2 sags, attack and get into the defense or take a wide open jump shot. The carry (along with a moving screen) creates a 2-1 opportunity where Nash's defender is completely wiped out. This dribbling violation gives Nash more momentum to penetrate or creates more time/space to expose the defense. 


That everyone is talking about this means that Phil's getting what he wants- the fans, officials, & media will all watch Nash a little more carefully. Besides, Phil's an expert on the carrying violation after watching MJ for so many years. But this may backfire on Phil if the referees watch Kobe coming over a screen. What happened to David Stern, who threatened to fine coaches/players for commenting about the officiating? 

LA's main weakness is injuries to Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum. The Lakers need the length of Bynum to cause matchup problems against the Suns- 10 points & 8 rebounds should do the trick. Unfortunately, Bynum's knee (torn cartilage!) is giving him problems & Kobe hasn't played in a week. If both players are injured then LA will have trouble rotating on defense and keeping up with Phoenix. 

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