Eastern Conf. Finals Preview & Defending LeBron (because no one cares about Orlando/Boston)

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Yes the Eastern Conference finals is about to start, but let’s talk about LeBron since the Cavs' loss is more fun (and higher in importance according to the media) to talk about than anything on the court.

And while I’m at it, I’ll pile on LeBron like everyone else. After all, he must be a quitter since he had only 27 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists on an “off-night” in Game 6. Sure he made a bunch of mistakes (9 turnovers!) & shot poorly, but when Rondo posted similar numbers, the discussion was if Rondo was the best point guard in the league. Has any other small-forward ever compiled these stats & received so much criticism?

What happened to LeBron?

The Cavs lost because LeBron’s elbow prevented him from hitting outside shots. In Game 6, he hit two 3’s early in the 4^th quarter but once again shot below 40% (8/21) for the entire game. As I stated in my last post, the Cavs can’t win if LeBron shoots this poorly. 

There are no other rational explanations for why he played so poorly. Unfortunately, his refusal to acknowledge the impact of his elbow injury leaves the door open to plenty of wild & irrational explanations for his poor performance.

Did Cleveland's management & Coach Mike Brown make all the right moves?

Yes and no. With a healthy LeBron the Cavs could (can?) win a title with the talent they have, although it’s not an overwhelming roster that can step up when one major player is injured. And maybe GM Danny Ferry did everything possible; but at the end of the day they have less talent than the remaining teams in the playoffs. 

Their roster is loaded with players that play well with LeBron, but have trouble attacking top defenses on their own. Mo Williams (Cavs #2 scorer?) was very inconsistent against the Celtics- good numbers in Game 1 & 6 (21 pts on 50% shooting) but awful in Games 2-5 (9.5 pts on 32% shooting). Against the Celtics, #3-scorer Antawn Jamison averaged 12 points on 42% shooting. His offensive efficiency was much better in the regular season (15.8 pts on 48% fgs) and in the first round (19.4 pts on 51% fgs) against the Bulls. And as good as the Williams & Jamison are, they don’t match the combos that the remaining playoff teams have- Kobe/Gasol, Nash/Stoudemire, Howard/Lewis/Carter, & Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen.

Against the Celtics, the Cavs played unusual line-ups and combinations that didn’t look comfortable on the floor together. J.J. Hickson started for much of the season (77 games) & then averaged only 9 minutes against the Celtics. And the Cavs never really had a solid rotation involving Ilgauskas, O’Neal, Varejao, & Jamison. They kept trying to find the right defense but the Celtics (especially Garnett) exploited O’Neal, Ilgauskas, & Jamison either in the pick-and-roll or post.

Mike Brown is a solid coach with a healthy LeBron. However, two issues became evident against the Celtics:

1. An inability to adjust. With LeBron not playing well, the Cavs failed to make substantial changes. You have to skip Game 3 from any analysis because that was with a healthy LeBron. Through five games they made very few changes to move the ball faster and get other players more involved. They ran many of the same sets even though the results did not support doing so (two blowout losses in Cleveland). They made some changes in Game 6 (Shaq on Garnett) but the changes came too late. The Cavs just didn’t have enough time to integrate major changes in their offense so they still (incorrectly) relied on LeBron to create shots for everyone else.  
2. Personnel integration. The Ilgauskas-Jamison deal added talent to the Cavs but Coach Brown was unable to find an affective 8/9 man rotation against the Celtics. Ilgauskas played in Game 1(5 mins), Game 5 (14 mins) and Game 6 (14mins) but sat on the bench during Games 2-4. J.J. Hickson played 10+ mins in the first three games but then only played a few mins in the last three (~5mins in games 4/5 and then 10 seconds in Game 6). Players need consistent minutes to play well together. Playing only a few minutes together, or skipping games completely, hurts on-court chemistry.

It’s not clear who (if anybody) should be blamed for these two problems. Some of the blame could be given to both Mike Brown & Danny Ferry. Mike Brown used the players that Danny Ferry gave him, but maybe Brown should have done a better job managing minutes and making adjustments. Then again, Danny Ferry could have acquired players that fit together better. Or maybe if LeBron’s healthy then this discussion doesn’t even happen.

 Should LeBron stay?

From a basketball perspective, no. He could go to a number of other NBA teams that have more talent, are younger, and have better cap situations. But I have a feeling he’ll stay in Cleveland because he’s loyal to Ohio.

Orlando-Boston Preview

Orlando wins in 5 or 6. No one matches up well with the Magic who hit 3’s, attack, and rotate the ball very well. The Magic are also really hot right now having swept the Hawks & Bobcats.

In 2009, the Magic defeated the Celtics in the Eastern Semifinals after a resounding 101-82 Game 7 win in Boston. Since then, the Celtics’ big three have gotten a year older, while Orlando, with Nelson (now healthy), Howard, & Lewis, have added an NBA Finals appearance & Vince Carter to their resume. Mickael Pietrus & Matt Barnes have played very well at small forward in place of Hedo Turkoglu.

The Celtics will have trouble containing Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, & Pietrus on the perimeter and when they drive to the hoop after the ball is rotated. This is where Orlando can exploit its speed and a slow-rotating Celtics defense.

Kevin Garnett will once again be a major problem for the Magic. Garnett is too big for Lewis so the Magic may have to put Gortat or Howard on him. The Magic may also have problems with Rondo, depending on how they decide to guard him.

For the second consecutive season, too much speed & 3-point shooting will overwhelm the Celtics.