Game 7- LA's Championship to Lose

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

I really didn't feel there was a need for a Game 7 Preview after the Lakers easily beat the Celtics in Game 6. If the Lakers don't have a letdown then they should easily win tonight.

Using length, quickness, and ball movement, I predicted that LA would dominate this series as long as Bynum contributed. That has pretty much held true with Bynum logging 25+ minutes in 4 of the 5 first games and cancelling out Perkins in Game 6. Without Perkins, the Lakers can penetrate with ease and grab rebounds (52-39 in Game 6) on both ends of the court. This opens up uncontested perimeter shots or offensive put-backs.

There are a few things that may prevent LA from celebrating:

Consistently Inconsistent

Heading into Game 6 the Lakers were very focused since they were facing elimination. They dominated most of the game but espescially the first half. However, during the third quarter the Lakers struggled through a handful of offensive plays- walk the ball up, pass around the perimeter, stand around, & take a bad shot as the 24 runs out. Following Game 6 all they've heard about is how dominant they were, the Perkins injury, and how a Lakers victory would impact Kobe/Phil and Lakers vs Celtics. 

The Lakers need to be motivated (and somewhat angry) to play their best basketball. I'm not sure if they're in the right frame of mind to put together another dominating effort. 

Good Ron or Bad Ron?

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

Ron Artest had 15 point and hit 3 three's in Game 1 and Game 6. Outside of those two games he hasn't shot over 50% or scored over 10 points. If Ron is hitting shots then the Celtics will pay for doubling Kobe and Pau. Which Ron will show up?

Better Bench Production from Boston

I think we can safely assume that the Celtics' reserves will play better than they did in Game 6. Look for Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to score 15-20 especially since Wallace will probably start. Wallace can change the game because he stretches LA's defense. This will give Garnett, Allen, Pierce, and Rondo more room to operate without the fear of a double team. In Game 6 Wallace missed 6 three's and was 0-7.

Well-Rested Old Celtics

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Game 6 was less than 48 hours after Game 5 and a cross-country flight. This scenario favored the Lakers who are younger and had the home court advantage. Now the Celtics are well rested with two nights in LA and no cross-country flight. Plus, they really didn't put out a max effort in Game 6 with most of the starters playing few minutes in the second half. With more rest, the older Celtics will have better energy and more lift in their jump shots.

A Different Team Without Perk

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

With Wallace and Davis playing more minutes the Celtics have more offense. They can also try to increase the tempo and use different looks to confuse the Lakers. In Game 6 Doc Rivers experimented with a two pg lineup (Rondo and Robinson) and then a two sg lineup (Tony Allen and Ray Allen). This could cause the Lakers problems since Boston has had two days work on a this new offensive strategy.

This is the End

The Lakers have everything going for them so long as they stay focused they should beat Boston. Whatever changes the Celtics make, they shouldn't bother the Lakers, who have the personnel to overcome any adjustments.

But this is now a one-game series with immense pressure primarily on the Lakers' side. Pierce could get hot, Allen could hit 10 three's, an injury to the Lakers, or something else could tip the scales in the Celtics' favor. Stranger things have happened & history is not on the Lakers' side- Don Nelson's shot, 9 straight Celtics championships over the Lakers, and a Game 7 home loss to Boston in the 1969 NBA Finals.

Lakers Control the Paint and Beat Boston in Game 1

ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

The formerly soft LA Lakers convincingly beat the Boston Celtics 102-89 in Game 1 of the 2010 NBA Finals. In my Finals Preview, I predicted several reasons why LA would dominate this series. These predictions held, and the Lakers had a relatively easy win. There were moments when it seemed like the Celtics would get back into the game but they never did.

Things the Lakers did well

Pau Gasol & Andrew Bynum dominated Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins even though Bynum only played a few minutes in the second half (not sure if he even played in the fourth quarter). Gasol (23 points and 14 rebounds) outplayed Garnett and Perkins who together put up 24 and 7 rebounds. Bynum's numbers (10 points and 6 rebounds) may not look significant but he created openings for his teammates since the Celtics have to keep someone on him when he's near the hoop. He was also able to tap rebounds & loose balls to himself or teammates. Gasol and Bynum were largely responsible for the Lakers 16-0 advantage in second chance points. 

LA's backcourt switched so that Kobe Bryant guarded Rajon Rondo. Early in the game Rondo created several scoring opportunities when Kobe left him near the hoop to help with post defense. For the rest of the game, Kobe did a good job of staying in front of Rondo and not leaving Rondo to help.

On offense, Kobe pretty much did whatever he wanted on his way to 30 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. He didn't have a great shooting night (10-22) but he was able to score and create shots for others. Kobe got into trouble a few times when he tried to shoot over two/three Celtics or pass after the defense was all over him.

Although Lamar Odom was mired in foul trouble during most of the game, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown came off the bench to give the Lakers some good minutes. Both guards were able to penetrate and  collapse the Celtics' interior defense. Brown got to the rim at will. As a big guard, he creates some of the same matchup problems that Kobe does.

Ron Artest played extremely well on both ends of the court. This was despite getting into foul trouble late in the first quarter which prevented him from playing much of the second quarter. Sure Pierce ended up with 24 but Ron made him work for every point. He also played great defense when he rotated onto a center or power forward. Ron played well on offense hitting from all over the floor including three three-pointers.

Things the Celtics did well

Paul Pierce had a huge game (24 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists) even though Ron Artest played tough defense against him. Half of his points came from the free-throw line but he did miss all four of his three-point  shots. His ability to get to the line could benefit the Celtics later in the series by getting LA's big men in foul trouble and creating open looks for his teammates.

Despite meager (12 points and 7 rebounds) numbers, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis had productive contributions. They were both able to dictate how they wanted to play instead of being pushed around by Gasol and Bynum. Davis also did a great job when defending Gasol. He was able to push Gasol out to the three point line instead of allowing him to get the ball at the high post. And when Gasol went into the low post, Davis had already pushed him from his comfort zone.

NBA Finals Preview: Lakers Are Tough Enough

For the 12th time in NBA history, the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics meet for the NBA title. Over the years, the two franchises have been noted for their differences. Most recently, the bigger and more physical Celtics beat LA in the 2008 Finals. Styles will again play a big part in the 2010 Finals with the Lakers ultimately winning in 5 or 6 games.

Despite major changes over the last two years, most people continue to claim that the Celtics are the more physical of the two teams. If you compare starters (Rondo-Fisher, Kobe-Allen, Pierce-Artest, Gasol-Garnett, and Bynum-Perkins) it's either even or the Lakers have the edge. A size advantage, deeper bench, the addition of Ron Artest, and the dominance of Kobe will propel LA to their 16th championship.

Frontcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

That was 2008. This is 2010 and the Lakers are a different team. In 2008, LA started Radmonovic, Odom, and Gasol. That's a quick and agile frontline that will score a lot of points. It won't work against slow and physical. The Lakers' current frontline is more physical than the same Pierce-Garnett-Perkins combo that the Celtics will go with.

You might make the argument that Garnett and Perkins are more physical than Gasol and Bynum but I don't think this is relevant or even accurate. During the regular season, Gasol and Bynum (66 points and 38 rebounds)  put up better numbers than Garnett and Perkins (44 points and 41 rebounds) as the teams split two games. The more physical Celtics that people talk about was Garnett and Perkins against Odom and Gasol.

If Bynum is unable to be productive (10 points, 8 rebounds, and 20 minutes) the Lakers will have serious problems and could lose the series. He can score against the Celtics and forces Perkins to play him instead of Gasol. Bynum's length will also cause problems for the Celtics who lack quick and aggressive help defenders who bother him. 

Bench Matchup- Edge Lakers

 

LA gets a big advantage when they go to the bench. The major difference since 2008 will be the fact that the Celtics no longer have James Posey. Instead, they'll have to go with Tony Allen for some minutes at shooting guard and small forward. He's not exactly a noted defender while Posey is a tough defender who made Kobe work harder & caused problems for multiple Lakers. Without Posey, the Celtics don't have anyone that can give Kobe any problems. 

Nate Robinson could give the Celtics a significant boost, but we don't know if he's going to get significant minutes or if he's going to be productive. He didn't do anything in the playoffs until Rondo got injured in Game 6 against Orlando.

Since the Lakers usually rotate Gasol, Odom, & Bynum at power forward & center, Rasheed Wallace & Glen Davis should not cause significant problems unless Bynum is injured or gets into foul trouble. Even if they do, Powell & Mbenga should be able to give the Lakers a few good minutes.

True Warrior vs The Truth: Slight Edge to Boston

Ron Artest and Paul Pierce don't like each other. They have history going back to when Artest pulled down Pierce's shorts while playing for the Pacers-

In February they got into it before the game started-

During the regular season, Pierce averaged only 13 points and 4.5 rebounds on 40% shooting. Those numbers might improve although Artest is also playing better now. Artest, who has struggled at times during the playoffs, will finally be in his element against a slow and physical team.

Backcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

Yes, Rondo is much better than he was in 2008 but the Lakers can live with him scoring as long as he doesn't get into the paint and create scoring chances for others. LA should switch Kobe onto Rondo and have Fisher chase Allen around the perimeter. Kobe should go under every screen and force Rondo to beat them with jump shots. Ray Allen will have some good shooting games. As long as he doesn't get a consistent 20+ points the Lakers will be fine.

The Celtics have no one to contain Kobe. He can get whatever shot he wants over Ray Allen or Tony Allen. They don't have the luxury of throwing James Posey at Kobe and Marquis Daniels is out indefinitely. Pierce will also get torched by Kobe.

Coaching- Even

Doc Rivers had the coaching advantage against Orlando and Cleveland, where the Celtics won three out of the first four games on the road. His coaching advantage ends as he takes on Phil Jackson who has plenty of tricks of his own. Look for both coaches to make adjustments and play games both on and off the court.

Intangibles- Even

The Celtics have found ways to win in the playoffs after a rocky regular season. They pushed the right buttons and upset the #1 and #2 teams in the Eastern Conference Finals. This might be a problem for the Lakers who are certainly capable of playing some sloppy and bad basketball. However, this won't happen  because the Lakers are still reeling from losing to the Celtics in 2008. An angry and vengeful Kobe will make sure that the Lakers are ready to beat the Celtics and repeat as NBA champions. 

Doomsday in Lakerdom? It's not over yet

Derek Fisher, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / April 22, 2010)

http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-04/53438471.jpg

Yes, the LA Lakers are struggling against the Oklahoma Thunder, but their first round playoff series isn't over yet. They should be able to get by the Thunder in 6 or 7 if they can just make a few adjustments and make some open shots!

 

My prediction that an attacking Thunder would exploit the slow-lengthy Lakers came to fruition in games 3 and 4. To change the momentum & regain control of the series, the Lakers need to do a few a few things in game 5:

1. Perimeter players have to hit open shots! OKC is sagging on Bynum & Gasol, who have been effective when they've gotten touches. Fisher, Odom, Bryant, Farmar, & Artest must make a few three's to open up the lane for driving and give post players more room. The Lakers were 10-31 and 4-22 from the 3-point line in games 3 and 4, respectively. Only Fisher shot well in both games (4-5 in game 3 and 3-6 in game 4). By allowing perimeter defenders to double-down OKC takes advantage of its speed and athleticism and overcomes its inability to guard Bryant, Gasol,  & Bynum on a 1-1 basis.  
2. Slowdown the OKC attack by limiting easy outlet passes. In games 3 & 4, the Thunder held a 47-9 advantage over the Lakers in fastbreak points. Laker bigs need to prevent easy (don't foul, just put your hands up) outlets to Westbrook who starts their break. Hitting outside shots will also slow the Thunder attack.
3. Stop overplaying perimeter players. Too many Lakers are reaching and getting beat by Westbrook, Durant, & Harden. See if the young Thunder can hit contested jump shots as the shot clock winds down. Once they penetrate & get into the lane, too many bad things happen. The longer the shot clock lasts, the better the Lakers' chances.
4. Kobe needs to be shoot more than 45%. Through the first four games, he's shot 38% which won't get it done. At this point, it's not important to try to figure out exactly why he only took 10 shots in game 4. If the Lakers want to win and avoid a colossal upset, then he has to be more aggressive and make more shots.