Lakers-Celtics Game 2 Preview

The Lakers will look to continue their success and go up 2-0 in the NBA Finals. Meanwhile Game 2 is Boston's last chance to steal a game in LA and take homecourt advantage. After a 13 point loss, they have multiple things to improve upon if they want to go back to Boston tied at 1-1.  Look for the Celtics to make some changes to try to get back into the series.

Changes for the Celtics

Keep Ray Allen on the floor

Why?

They need Ray on offense because he creates problems for LA when he comes off of screens. Since Rondo is unable to penetrate, Ray creates shots for himself and teammates on curl screens into the key. Paul Pierce also creates but mostly from the high post.

What happened?

Ray was in foul trouble because he picked up fouls guarding Kobe. If Kobe's going to have a big game then that's fine; but Ray can't also get into foul trouble.

Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images

Solution?

Ray needs to play less aggressively on Kobe since the help defense is coming. Doc Rivers must also find ways to trap Kobe so that he's not attacking Ray so much.

Defending Kobe

What happened?

In Game 1 Kobe had 30 points and was able to score or create at will. Too often he came around screens and was wide open. In the third quarter the Celtics did a better job of trapping Kobe. This forced Kobe into a couple of turnovers and unsuccessful drives into the Celtics' help defense.

Solutions

1) Make Kobe dribble further out in the perimeter where his options are more limited. Perkins needs to come out on Kobe until a guard rotates back. Or he can double Kobe. Sometimes Kobe will try to drive and score over big men helping in the key. If you're the Celtics, you'll take your chances with this rather than having Kobe make easy passes that lead to open shots. Also, when the Lakers watch Kobe drive into multiple defenders they lose rhythm and have a tendency to make mistakes.

2) If you're going to double Kobe you might as well try putting Rondo on Kobe. Rondo will do a decent job of harassing Kobe around the perimeter and also rotating if he loses Kobe on screens. The Lakers will probably counter by putting Kobe in the post. This works in the Celtics' favor since they can get the ball out of Kobe's hands by sending the double team.

Attacking LA

The Celtics could run more screen-rolls that involve Pierce and Garnett or Allen and Garnett. Either of these options will create a mismatch that the Celtics can exploit. In Game 1, the Celtics ran mostly post plays. This works in the Lakers' favor since they have the length of Gasol and Bynum to make things difficult for anyone in the post. The Celtics can counter this by forcing Bynum and Gasol away from the hoop where they have to run around and find a guy to defend.

Mix it up!

Nate Robinson poses problems since he can hit the outside shot. On screen-rolls he has multiple options that will break down LA's defense: shoot the three-pointer, drive into the paint, or pass to an open teammate. The Lakers will be in trouble if Bynum or Gasol has to come out and cover Nate on a high screen.

Changes for the Lakers

Defending curl screens
The Lakers did a poor job of defending Ray Allen when he comes around curl screens from the baseline.

Solution
The Lakers can counter this by preventing Ray from getting the ball. Ray is curling on one side of the floor and the pass is coming from the top of the key or three-point line. If the guard defending the passer knows which side Ray is on, he can step to that side at an angle to prevent an easy pass to Ray. Yes, the defender gives up the lane but the Celtics might not be able to exploit this. This video (at 1:25) shows what happened in the third quarter-

Derek Fisher could step to his right at an angle if he knows that Ray is curling off a screen on that side of the floor. This would open the lane to Nate Robinson but the help defense (Shannon Brown and Gasol) may prevent Robinson from scoring or creating a shot. Brown could leave Rondo out on the perimeter to guard Robinson.

The same exact situation occurs at 1:39. This time Rondo is entering the pass so Brown has two options that involve leaving Rondo open. He can cut the pass off if he knows where Allen is or he can drop towards the free-throw line to double Ray Allen.

Pau isn't getting good post position
Pau allows defenders to push him too far from the high or low post. In the low post this is a problem because his post game is best at 8-10 feet from the hoop. At 10+ feet from the hoop he has to dribble towards the hoop (which invites help defenders) or is limited to face-up jumpers. His deadly right and left jump hooks are not an option that far from the hoop. At 1:58 in the video you can see one instance of this:

Solution

When posting Pau allows defenders to easily push him in his back and away from the hoop. To counter, Pau needs to find ways to prevent defenders from having an angle to simply push him. The easiest solutions is to face his defender for longer periods of time until the ball gets to him.

Lakers Control the Paint and Beat Boston in Game 1

ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

The formerly soft LA Lakers convincingly beat the Boston Celtics 102-89 in Game 1 of the 2010 NBA Finals. In my Finals Preview, I predicted several reasons why LA would dominate this series. These predictions held, and the Lakers had a relatively easy win. There were moments when it seemed like the Celtics would get back into the game but they never did.

Things the Lakers did well

Pau Gasol & Andrew Bynum dominated Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins even though Bynum only played a few minutes in the second half (not sure if he even played in the fourth quarter). Gasol (23 points and 14 rebounds) outplayed Garnett and Perkins who together put up 24 and 7 rebounds. Bynum's numbers (10 points and 6 rebounds) may not look significant but he created openings for his teammates since the Celtics have to keep someone on him when he's near the hoop. He was also able to tap rebounds & loose balls to himself or teammates. Gasol and Bynum were largely responsible for the Lakers 16-0 advantage in second chance points. 

LA's backcourt switched so that Kobe Bryant guarded Rajon Rondo. Early in the game Rondo created several scoring opportunities when Kobe left him near the hoop to help with post defense. For the rest of the game, Kobe did a good job of staying in front of Rondo and not leaving Rondo to help.

On offense, Kobe pretty much did whatever he wanted on his way to 30 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. He didn't have a great shooting night (10-22) but he was able to score and create shots for others. Kobe got into trouble a few times when he tried to shoot over two/three Celtics or pass after the defense was all over him.

Although Lamar Odom was mired in foul trouble during most of the game, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown came off the bench to give the Lakers some good minutes. Both guards were able to penetrate and  collapse the Celtics' interior defense. Brown got to the rim at will. As a big guard, he creates some of the same matchup problems that Kobe does.

Ron Artest played extremely well on both ends of the court. This was despite getting into foul trouble late in the first quarter which prevented him from playing much of the second quarter. Sure Pierce ended up with 24 but Ron made him work for every point. He also played great defense when he rotated onto a center or power forward. Ron played well on offense hitting from all over the floor including three three-pointers.

Things the Celtics did well

Paul Pierce had a huge game (24 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists) even though Ron Artest played tough defense against him. Half of his points came from the free-throw line but he did miss all four of his three-point  shots. His ability to get to the line could benefit the Celtics later in the series by getting LA's big men in foul trouble and creating open looks for his teammates.

Despite meager (12 points and 7 rebounds) numbers, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis had productive contributions. They were both able to dictate how they wanted to play instead of being pushed around by Gasol and Bynum. Davis also did a great job when defending Gasol. He was able to push Gasol out to the three point line instead of allowing him to get the ball at the high post. And when Gasol went into the low post, Davis had already pushed him from his comfort zone.

Eastern Conf. Finals Preview & Defending LeBron (because no one cares about Orlando/Boston)

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Yes the Eastern Conference finals is about to start, but let’s talk about LeBron since the Cavs' loss is more fun (and higher in importance according to the media) to talk about than anything on the court.

And while I’m at it, I’ll pile on LeBron like everyone else. After all, he must be a quitter since he had only 27 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists on an “off-night” in Game 6. Sure he made a bunch of mistakes (9 turnovers!) & shot poorly, but when Rondo posted similar numbers, the discussion was if Rondo was the best point guard in the league. Has any other small-forward ever compiled these stats & received so much criticism?

What happened to LeBron?

The Cavs lost because LeBron’s elbow prevented him from hitting outside shots. In Game 6, he hit two 3’s early in the 4^th quarter but once again shot below 40% (8/21) for the entire game. As I stated in my last post, the Cavs can’t win if LeBron shoots this poorly. 

There are no other rational explanations for why he played so poorly. Unfortunately, his refusal to acknowledge the impact of his elbow injury leaves the door open to plenty of wild & irrational explanations for his poor performance.

Did Cleveland's management & Coach Mike Brown make all the right moves?

Yes and no. With a healthy LeBron the Cavs could (can?) win a title with the talent they have, although it’s not an overwhelming roster that can step up when one major player is injured. And maybe GM Danny Ferry did everything possible; but at the end of the day they have less talent than the remaining teams in the playoffs. 

Their roster is loaded with players that play well with LeBron, but have trouble attacking top defenses on their own. Mo Williams (Cavs #2 scorer?) was very inconsistent against the Celtics- good numbers in Game 1 & 6 (21 pts on 50% shooting) but awful in Games 2-5 (9.5 pts on 32% shooting). Against the Celtics, #3-scorer Antawn Jamison averaged 12 points on 42% shooting. His offensive efficiency was much better in the regular season (15.8 pts on 48% fgs) and in the first round (19.4 pts on 51% fgs) against the Bulls. And as good as the Williams & Jamison are, they don’t match the combos that the remaining playoff teams have- Kobe/Gasol, Nash/Stoudemire, Howard/Lewis/Carter, & Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen.

Against the Celtics, the Cavs played unusual line-ups and combinations that didn’t look comfortable on the floor together. J.J. Hickson started for much of the season (77 games) & then averaged only 9 minutes against the Celtics. And the Cavs never really had a solid rotation involving Ilgauskas, O’Neal, Varejao, & Jamison. They kept trying to find the right defense but the Celtics (especially Garnett) exploited O’Neal, Ilgauskas, & Jamison either in the pick-and-roll or post.

Mike Brown is a solid coach with a healthy LeBron. However, two issues became evident against the Celtics:

1. An inability to adjust. With LeBron not playing well, the Cavs failed to make substantial changes. You have to skip Game 3 from any analysis because that was with a healthy LeBron. Through five games they made very few changes to move the ball faster and get other players more involved. They ran many of the same sets even though the results did not support doing so (two blowout losses in Cleveland). They made some changes in Game 6 (Shaq on Garnett) but the changes came too late. The Cavs just didn’t have enough time to integrate major changes in their offense so they still (incorrectly) relied on LeBron to create shots for everyone else.  
2. Personnel integration. The Ilgauskas-Jamison deal added talent to the Cavs but Coach Brown was unable to find an affective 8/9 man rotation against the Celtics. Ilgauskas played in Game 1(5 mins), Game 5 (14 mins) and Game 6 (14mins) but sat on the bench during Games 2-4. J.J. Hickson played 10+ mins in the first three games but then only played a few mins in the last three (~5mins in games 4/5 and then 10 seconds in Game 6). Players need consistent minutes to play well together. Playing only a few minutes together, or skipping games completely, hurts on-court chemistry.

It’s not clear who (if anybody) should be blamed for these two problems. Some of the blame could be given to both Mike Brown & Danny Ferry. Mike Brown used the players that Danny Ferry gave him, but maybe Brown should have done a better job managing minutes and making adjustments. Then again, Danny Ferry could have acquired players that fit together better. Or maybe if LeBron’s healthy then this discussion doesn’t even happen.

 Should LeBron stay?

From a basketball perspective, no. He could go to a number of other NBA teams that have more talent, are younger, and have better cap situations. But I have a feeling he’ll stay in Cleveland because he’s loyal to Ohio.

Orlando-Boston Preview

Orlando wins in 5 or 6. No one matches up well with the Magic who hit 3’s, attack, and rotate the ball very well. The Magic are also really hot right now having swept the Hawks & Bobcats.

In 2009, the Magic defeated the Celtics in the Eastern Semifinals after a resounding 101-82 Game 7 win in Boston. Since then, the Celtics’ big three have gotten a year older, while Orlando, with Nelson (now healthy), Howard, & Lewis, have added an NBA Finals appearance & Vince Carter to their resume. Mickael Pietrus & Matt Barnes have played very well at small forward in place of Hedo Turkoglu.

The Celtics will have trouble containing Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, & Pietrus on the perimeter and when they drive to the hoop after the ball is rotated. This is where Orlando can exploit its speed and a slow-rotating Celtics defense.

Kevin Garnett will once again be a major problem for the Magic. Garnett is too big for Lewis so the Magic may have to put Gortat or Howard on him. The Magic may also have problems with Rondo, depending on how they decide to guard him.

For the second consecutive season, too much speed & 3-point shooting will overwhelm the Celtics. 

Cavs Need a Healthy LeBron to Beat the Celtics

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

My last post explained why LeBron's injured elbow is so critical to the Cavs success.  When his elbow was better in game 3, he & the Cavs dominated. But his poor shooting during the other four games largely explains why the Cavs are facing elimination in Game 6 against the Celtics.

Game 6 Preview

The Cavs can only win if LeBron is healthy. And the odds of that are low when you look at what's transpired so far. LeBron has played poorly with the exception of Game 3. Through five games he's averaging 26.8 pts on 46% shooting. The 46% shooting is low for James (50% during reg. season) but still respectable. But if you take out Game 3 (14-22 fgs & 38 pts) his numbers drop considerably to 19.2 pts on 40% shooting (29/71). So really he's struggled in four of five games. 

Both Cavs' wins have come off of at least two days of rest (Game 1 on 3 days rest and Game 3 off 2 days rest). So it appears that LeBron needs more than the one day of rest between Game 5 and 6. 

It's one thing to play with an injury but it's an entirely different challenge when that injury is to your shooting arm. Also, the elbow is critical to LeBron's jump-shot. If you look at his shooting motion (above), his elbow is bent outward instead of being straight. Since his elbow isn't straight, his shot requires that his elbow control the force and direction of his release. An injured elbow explains why he's been unable to shoot confidently from the perimeter.

It's okay for LeBron to play with an injury. If he just acknowledges the injury then his teammates & coaching staff can adjust accordingly. Instead the Cavs haven't changed and they continue to look sluggish and unable to attack the Celtics sagging defense. Either his injury has to get better or the Cavs must change their offense if they want to challenge the Celtics.

What the Celtics have done right so far-

• Control game tempo. They don't want to run with Cavs who are younger and feed off of fastbreaks and attacking the hoop. 
• Garnett dominating in the post. Jamison is a small 6'9" trying to challenge a lengthy Garnett at  6'11". Garnett gets whatever shot he wants against Jamison, he's just that much bigger. This isn't Jamison's fault, the Cavs have to adjust their defense. Varejao is probably their best bet against Garnett. Try starting Varejao & moving Parker to the bench.
• Keep LeBron out of the paint. It's not the Celtics' fault that LeBron is reluctant to take outside shots. If he stays out on the perimeter then the Celtics can cover or double everyone else.
• Rondo causing havoc. He's putting up huge numbers and taking what the Cavs are giving him (more on this later). What's most impressive is his decision making & that he hasn't forced the issue even though he's wide open on every screen.    

What the Cavs have done right-

• Make Rondo beat them. Rondo has put up huge numbers but the Cavs will take their chances with Rondo trying to score instead of Pierce, Garnett, & Allen all scoring 18+. The strategy of letting Rondo score while containing everyone else would work if the Cavs were playing better on offense. 
• Containing Pierce (13.6 pts on 35% shooting through 5 games). With Rondo dribbling so much, Pierce hasn't had the ball much and has been a non-factor against the Cavs. Certainly, LeBron's defense has also made things difficult for Paul.

Foul or Block- You Make the Call

Spurs' guard Manu Ginobili blocked a shot by Celtics' forward Kevin Garnett during the Spurs beatdown of the Celtics 94-73 this past Sunday. Some people are now calling it the best block of the year. I'm not sure about that or even if it was a block. What do you think- was this a block or should there have been a foul called on Ginobili or George Hill?

The play is certainly quite dramatic as you see a Hall of Famer get taken down by a guard. But if you look more closely there is contact that makes it difficult to decide if it was good defense or if the officials made a mistake.

At 0:32 seconds it appears that there was a substantial, & significant, amount of contact-

What do you think- was this a foul or a good play?

Personally, i think the officials missed three fouls. The first foul is Hill pushing KG in the lower back with his left hand. If you miss that foul then what about Hill's right hand/forearm on KG's right forearm? Lastly, if you look at the picture, Ginobili's left hand is clearly on KG's right wrist. If your claim is that Ginobili's hand ended up on KG's hand after the block, that's just not possible. Ginobili is going in the opposite direction of KG, so his momentum would carry him (and his arm) in the opposite direction on, or above, the ball if he initially blocked the ball.

Since the play happens so quickly it's somewhat understandable that the officials missed Ginobili's foul. But the officials have no excuse for missing Hill's fouls. Ginobili is an excellent defender but he shouldn't get credit for this block.