Doomsday in Lakerdom? It's not over yet

Derek Fisher, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / April 22, 2010)

http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-04/53438471.jpg

Yes, the LA Lakers are struggling against the Oklahoma Thunder, but their first round playoff series isn't over yet. They should be able to get by the Thunder in 6 or 7 if they can just make a few adjustments and make some open shots!

 

My prediction that an attacking Thunder would exploit the slow-lengthy Lakers came to fruition in games 3 and 4. To change the momentum & regain control of the series, the Lakers need to do a few a few things in game 5:

1. Perimeter players have to hit open shots! OKC is sagging on Bynum & Gasol, who have been effective when they've gotten touches. Fisher, Odom, Bryant, Farmar, & Artest must make a few three's to open up the lane for driving and give post players more room. The Lakers were 10-31 and 4-22 from the 3-point line in games 3 and 4, respectively. Only Fisher shot well in both games (4-5 in game 3 and 3-6 in game 4). By allowing perimeter defenders to double-down OKC takes advantage of its speed and athleticism and overcomes its inability to guard Bryant, Gasol,  & Bynum on a 1-1 basis.  
2. Slowdown the OKC attack by limiting easy outlet passes. In games 3 & 4, the Thunder held a 47-9 advantage over the Lakers in fastbreak points. Laker bigs need to prevent easy (don't foul, just put your hands up) outlets to Westbrook who starts their break. Hitting outside shots will also slow the Thunder attack.
3. Stop overplaying perimeter players. Too many Lakers are reaching and getting beat by Westbrook, Durant, & Harden. See if the young Thunder can hit contested jump shots as the shot clock winds down. Once they penetrate & get into the lane, too many bad things happen. The longer the shot clock lasts, the better the Lakers' chances.
4. Kobe needs to be shoot more than 45%. Through the first four games, he's shot 38% which won't get it done. At this point, it's not important to try to figure out exactly why he only took 10 shots in game 4. If the Lakers want to win and avoid a colossal upset, then he has to be more aggressive and make more shots.

Lakers-Thunder Preview: 3 Reasons Why LA Will Struggle

(http://my.lakers.com/blogs/)

The LA Lakers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The Lakers will struggle against OKC because of injuries, perimeter defense and an inability to guard Kevin Durant.

1. Injuries: The Lakers will look sluggish as they integrate Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant back into the rotation. The triangle operates instinctively so that players exploit their strengths through picks and cuts. As the season ended, the offense was run through Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, two players that don’t naturally dominate the ball. It’s not fun watching them try to stay aggressive while working Bynum and Bryant (two guys who need the ball) back into the offense. 
2. Over-Aggressive Perimeter Defense: Fisher, Bryant, and Artest are too aggressive when picking-up perimeter opponents.
   
   
   
   
   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong) 
   They begin defending opponents 2-3 feet beyond the 3-point line when they’re not even attacking. This plays right into the hands of athletic guards like Westbrook, Sefolosha, and Harden who love to penetrate. I know they have this “funneling” philosophy but it’s actually an especially bad tactic against the Thunder. Once they get past that first defender they’re basically pushing a 5-on-4 fast-break starting from the 3-point line. As good as Gasol and Bynum are, their weakness is in tracking smaller players heading straight towards them. Nor are they well suited to rotate out to big-men who hit outside shots (Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic). And Artest will be unable to help off of Durant. A better tactic would be to drop back and let them try to tangle with a formidable frontline (two seven-footers and Artest) using traditional offensive sets.
3. Phil Jackson’s not confident his team can slow down Kevin Durant. Phil Jackson was fined $35k this week for comments insinuating that Durant gets unwarranted “superstar” treatment from the officials.Why would he need to probe Durant and get into his head? Phil's complaints are a sign of weakness-  he's unsure if Artest and the Lakers' defense can handle Durant. Phil usually reserves his jabs for later rounds and more threatening opponents (guys like LeBron, Dwight Howard, Carmelo, and Ginobili) with playoff experience. Yes, Durant can score but this is OKC’s first playoff appearance and their team is full of young inexperienced players. When you have to complain in the media then you have a problem that can’t be dealt with on the court. 

Prediction: Lakers in 6. The Lakers will struggle but it’s more about them working through their injuries. Too much size, experience, depth and talent will overpower the Thunder.