Showing posts with label Phil Jackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phil Jackson. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

The Art of War and Game 6 Adjustments for the Lakers

Game 6 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics is tonight. Something has got to give. I heard that the Celtics have never lost a series after leading 3-2 and that Phil Jackson's 10 million-0 after winning game 1.

Since Game 3 Andrew Bynum has been ineffective (43 minutes, 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 0 blocks) and the series has reverted back to the 2008 Finals with the Celtics controlling the paint. This is fine for the Celtics who continue to win as the Lakers try nothing new to change the outcome. Watching the Lakers pass the ball around the perimeter and then look to Kobe to bail them out is painful!


(Charles Krupa / Associated Press)

What's surprising is that Phil Jackson hasn't changed what the Lakers are doing. For all his wisdom and the worshipness bestowed upon him, no one has questioned that he's been outcoached by Doc Rivers. The Lakers need to break out of the triangle when necessary. Two successful examples are the two-man game between Fisher and Bryant in Game 3 and the high screen-roll with Kobe and Pau against Orlando in the 2009 Finals. 

Maybe Phil is immune to the criticism because he finds ways to win and two days from now we'll all be praising him for the Lakers' comeback victory. For the Lakers to win, it would help if Phil remembered strategies from The Art of War by Sun Tzu, a military strategy book that Phil has surely read.

Military tactics are like unto water; for water in its natural course runs away from high places and hastens downwards... Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain.
- Sun Tzu





The words "toughness" and "physicality" (i'm pretty sure this isn't even a word!) have been incorrectly thrown around recently. Hey, i get it, it's fun to say "work harder" and "play tougher," but the Lakers should be playing smarter. Everyone wants Lamar and Pau to suddenly put on 20 pounds of muscle and start pushing people around like they're Dwight Howard. Instead, as Sun Tzu suggests, LA should attack Boston's physical style and use it against them.

So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.
- Sun Tzu


Enough with the Philosophy, get to the Tactics!

What's Boston's strength? Strength!

This all starts with Kendrick Perkins, whose numbers don't reveal the impact he has on the game. With Bynum injured Perkins eats up space, grabs rebounds, and pushes anyone out of rebound position. He's really good at planting his feet and pushing with two hands. At 6'10" he's roughly the same height as Lamar and a couple inches shorter than Pau and Bynum. At 278 he's the same weight as Bynum and has 30 pounds on Pau and 50 on Lamar. With this height-weight combination he can easily push his opponents out of the way. 

Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Tony Allen play tough one-on-one defense against Kobe and Pau. Their strategy is to push-up against Pau or Kobe and prevent them from generating any momentum when they put the ball on the floor.

They first make the catch very difficult by staying close to Kobe or Pau and preventing them from receiving the ball where they want it. When they do get the ball, the Celtics move into Pau and Kobe giving them no room to dribble or go towards the hoop. Obviously if someone crowds you on defense you try to go around them. Kobe and Pau cannot get around their opponent because when they put the ball on the ground their defender is still engaged (hand or forearm) with them. Technically this is a foul but the ref's aren't calling it and there's no point in complaining about it at this point. With a defender engaged with them, Pau and Kobe cannot get by their defender or are going so slowly that help defenders can easily rotate.

Turning Boston's Strength into a Weakness

Using strength and leverage requires being in close proximity to your opponent. The Lakers- who are longer, quicker, and faster- need to move without the ball, pass more, and swing through hand-checks. If the Lakers do this then it will prevent defenders from locking on Pau/Kobe and Perkins from owning the paint. If Perkins has to help or move around then he's away from the hoop which makes it more difficult for him to box out.

If Bynum can't contribute Phil should try using Mbenga who should be able wrestle with Perkins. The two are similar in style so Mbenga should be able to keep Perkins off the boards and hold is ground under the hoop.

To clear space Pau and Kobe can swing through the hand-check allowing them to break contact and possibly pick up a foul on their defender. If they do this a few times the defense will have to give them more room.

Let's look at LA's offense which gives Perkins paint control and allows the Celtics to help on Pau and Kobe. At 42 seconds into the video we see why the Lakers offense struggles-


Let's look at what happens with 10 seconds left on the 24-


First, Pau and Lamar are both setting a screen for Kobe which is kind of pointless since they're all bunched up. The key problem the Lakers are having is on the weakside where Fisher and Luke Walton allow one defender (Rondo) to guard two people while the other defender (Pierce) can roam freely. As the play develops, Fisher & Walton don't move from their positions, Pierce slides into the key, and Kobe puts up a shot over three defenders. Instead, if Walton or Fisher cuts there will be a clean pass to whoever Rondo leaves.

Another example of stagnant offense is Tony Allen's block on Pau Gasol in the third quarter (1:22 of the video).


Notice that the play involves four Lakers standing around the perimeter and Pau sealing for the lob. When the pass is made into Pau, Tony Allen can leave his defender because he has been watching the play develop and doesn't have to worry about his man (Sasha) who is right in front of him. To prevent Tony Allen from helping, all Sasha has to do is make a hard jab in one direction for a split second. This could force Tony to turn his back on Pau and chase Sasha a little bit.

The point here isn't that Sasha made a mistake but rather that LA's offense doesn't move around which allows help defenders to negate LA's individual offensive stars- mainly Kobe and Pau. In this play Rondo or Davis could also have stopped Pau from scoring. And because four Lakers are on the perimeter the Celtics also have inside rebound position to easily collect the miss.

The Lakers further prove my point through some plays that worked in Game 5. Watch what happens (2:56 into the video) when the Lakers pass the ball around and move without the basketball-


The Celtics play pretty good defense in this possession until Ray Allen doesn't realize Kobe is cutting to the hoop-


This is more good offense by the Lakers than it is bad defesne by Ray Allen. Notice that when Kobe cuts, Ray is thinking about helping against Lamar driving or Andrew/Artest under the hoop. Because the Lakers moved the ball around Ray was unable to keep an eye on both his man and the other Lakers.

Later in the video (4:53) there's another good example of the Lakers moving the ball & breaking the Celtics' defense. This time it's without Kobe but again involves movement and someone getting into the middle. The key play is made by Luke Walton who slowly (not really looking to score) & patiently drives into the key. He waits for the defense to step up and has an easy pass to Sasha who smartly moved without the ball and went to an open spot-


Notice that Tony Allen is forced to guard Lamar & Sasha out in the perimeter. Tony  picks up  Lamar cutting through key (incorrectly- helps already in the key!) and leaves Sasha for a wide open three. This is a decidely different outcome from the previously play where Tony Allen was a help defender, made the right choice, and blocked Pau's shot.

Also if Sasha misses there are angles and mismatches for the Lakers to sneak in and get an offensive rebound-


In this case notice that Walton has inside position on Rondo and Davis is trying to box out Pau Gasol. Also, Lamar and Farmar could easily sneak into the key to collect a long rebound since Pierce is floating in between them.

Final Thoughts

Unfortunately for the Lakers, most of the other highlights in those videos involve the Celtics moving the ball on offense and the Lakers standing around when they have the ball. LA's defense has been okay but they cannot continue to score below 100 if they want to win the series. The Celtics are slower, older, and need close-proximity contact to stay with the Lakers. For the Lakers to win, they must trust each other, move without the ball, create spacing, and turn the Celtics' strengths into weaknesses.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

NBA Finals Preview: Lakers Are Tough Enough


For the 12th time in NBA history, the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics meet for the NBA title. Over the years, the two franchises have been noted for their differences. Most recently, the bigger and more physical Celtics beat LA in the 2008 Finals. Styles will again play a big part in the 2010 Finals with the Lakers ultimately winning in 5 or 6 games.

Despite major changes over the last two years, most people continue to claim that the Celtics are the more physical of the two teams. If you compare starters (Rondo-Fisher, Kobe-Allen, Pierce-Artest, Gasol-Garnett, and Bynum-Perkins) it's either even or the Lakers have the edge. A size advantage, deeper bench, the addition of Ron Artest, and the dominance of Kobe will propel LA to their 16th championship.

Frontcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

That was 2008. This is 2010 and the Lakers are a different team. In 2008, LA started Radmonovic, Odom, and Gasol. That's a quick and agile frontline that will score a lot of points. It won't work against slow and physical. The Lakers' current frontline is more physical than the same Pierce-Garnett-Perkins combo that the Celtics will go with.

You might make the argument that Garnett and Perkins are more physical than Gasol and Bynum but I don't think this is relevant or even accurate. During the regular season, Gasol and Bynum (66 points and 38 rebounds)  put up better numbers than Garnett and Perkins (44 points and 41 rebounds) as the teams split two games. The more physical Celtics that people talk about was Garnett and Perkins against Odom and Gasol.

If Bynum is unable to be productive (10 points, 8 rebounds, and 20 minutes) the Lakers will have serious problems and could lose the series. He can score against the Celtics and forces Perkins to play him instead of Gasol. Bynum's length will also cause problems for the Celtics who lack quick and aggressive help defenders who bother him. 

Bench Matchup- Edge Lakers
 
LA gets a big advantage when they go to the bench. The major difference since 2008 will be the fact that the Celtics no longer have James Posey. Instead, they'll have to go with Tony Allen for some minutes at shooting guard and small forward. He's not exactly a noted defender while Posey is a tough defender who made Kobe work harder & caused problems for multiple Lakers. Without Posey, the Celtics don't have anyone that can give Kobe any problems. 

Nate Robinson could give the Celtics a significant boost, but we don't know if he's going to get significant minutes or if he's going to be productive. He didn't do anything in the playoffs until Rondo got injured in Game 6 against Orlando.

Since the Lakers usually rotate Gasol, Odom, & Bynum at power forward & center, Rasheed Wallace & Glen Davis should not cause significant problems unless Bynum is injured or gets into foul trouble. Even if they do, Powell & Mbenga should be able to give the Lakers a few good minutes.

True Warrior vs The Truth: Slight Edge to Boston
Ron Artest and Paul Pierce don't like each other. They have history going back to when Artest pulled down Pierce's shorts while playing for the Pacers-

In February they got into it before the game started-

During the regular season, Pierce averaged only 13 points and 4.5 rebounds on 40% shooting. Those numbers might improve although Artest is also playing better now. Artest, who has struggled at times during the playoffs, will finally be in his element against a slow and physical team.

Backcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

Yes, Rondo is much better than he was in 2008 but the Lakers can live with him scoring as long as he doesn't get into the paint and create scoring chances for others. LA should switch Kobe onto Rondo and have Fisher chase Allen around the perimeter. Kobe should go under every screen and force Rondo to beat them with jump shots. Ray Allen will have some good shooting games. As long as he doesn't get a consistent 20+ points the Lakers will be fine.

The Celtics have no one to contain Kobe. He can get whatever shot he wants over Ray Allen or Tony Allen. They don't have the luxury of throwing James Posey at Kobe and Marquis Daniels is out indefinitely. Pierce will also get torched by Kobe.

Coaching- Even

Doc Rivers had the coaching advantage against Orlando and Cleveland, where the Celtics won three out of the first four games on the road. His coaching advantage ends as he takes on Phil Jackson who has plenty of tricks of his own. Look for both coaches to make adjustments and play games both on and off the court.

Intangibles- Even

The Celtics have found ways to win in the playoffs after a rocky regular season. They pushed the right buttons and upset the #1 and #2 teams in the Eastern Conference Finals. This might be a problem for the Lakers who are certainly capable of playing some sloppy and bad basketball. However, this won't happen  because the Lakers are still reeling from losing to the Celtics in 2008. An angry and vengeful Kobe will make sure that the Lakers are ready to beat the Celtics and repeat as NBA champions. 

Monday, May 17, 2010

Lakers-Suns 2010 West Finals Preview- Lakers in 5 or 6

(Getty Images)

After a lifetime (alright, it's only been a week) the Lakers & Suns return to the court tonight in the Western Conference Finals. LA won the season series 3-1 but, apparently, you can throw that stat out the window because the Suns are a new team now that Amare isn't being shopped around. I don't buy this, or any other, arguments that have Phoenix winning or taking the Lakers past 6 games.

The Lakers are still bigger than the Suns and have the personnel to win at the Suns' own game of increasing the tempo. During the regular season, the Lakers scored 100+ in all four games and even held the Suns under 100 twice. Much has been made of the Suns' bench, but the Lakers' bench is just as good- they just don't get as many minutes since Phil plays his starters more. Since the tempo will increase, look for the Lakers to use, and get more out of, their bench. 

Phil is concerned about the Suns as indicated by his comments questioning Steve Nash's dribbling. When asked if the Lakers were having trouble simulating Steve Nash, he accused Nash of a carrying violation- “Yeah, because you can’t carry the ball like he does in practice.... can’t pick that ball up and run with it.”
(tried to embed this video directly from NBA.com, but the embed curiously pointed to another a video soon after embedding.....conspiracy theorists, add this to your list)
This is a compliment to Nash & the Suns because it shows he's concerned with them. Jackson needled Durant before the OKC series but had nothing to say about Deron Williams- who also clearly carry's the ball- when the Lakers played the Jazz.


 (watch Nash carry not once, but twice)
Phil's correctly pointing out that Nash does carry the ball on most pick-and-rolls. When he goes around the screen, carrying the ball gives Nash two options- 1) if defender #2 steps up, bounce-pass between defenders and hit the screener 2) if defender #2 sags, attack and get into the defense or take a wide open jump shot. The carry (along with a moving screen) creates a 2-1 opportunity where Nash's defender is completely wiped out. This dribbling violation gives Nash more momentum to penetrate or creates more time/space to expose the defense. 


That everyone is talking about this means that Phil's getting what he wants- the fans, officials, & media will all watch Nash a little more carefully. Besides, Phil's an expert on the carrying violation after watching MJ for so many years. But this may backfire on Phil if the referees watch Kobe coming over a screen. What happened to David Stern, who threatened to fine coaches/players for commenting about the officiating? 

LA's main weakness is injuries to Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum. The Lakers need the length of Bynum to cause matchup problems against the Suns- 10 points & 8 rebounds should do the trick. Unfortunately, Bynum's knee (torn cartilage!) is giving him problems & Kobe hasn't played in a week. If both players are injured then LA will have trouble rotating on defense and keeping up with Phoenix. 

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Lakers-Thunder Preview: 3 Reasons Why LA Will Struggle


The LA Lakers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The Lakers will struggle against OKC because of injuries, perimeter defense and an inability to guard Kevin Durant.
  1. Injuries: The Lakers will look sluggish as they integrate Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant back into the rotation. The triangle operates instinctively so that players exploit their strengths through picks and cuts. As the season ended, the offense was run through Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, two players that don’t naturally dominate the ball. It’s not fun watching them try to stay aggressive while working Bynum and Bryant (two guys who need the ball) back into the offense. 
  2. Over-Aggressive Perimeter Defense: Fisher, Bryant, and Artest are too aggressive when picking-up perimeter opponents.


    (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong) 
    They begin defending opponents 2-3 feet beyond the 3-point line when they’re not even attacking. This plays right into the hands of athletic guards like Westbrook, Sefolosha, and Harden who love to penetrate. I know they have this “funneling” philosophy but it’s actually an especially bad tactic against the Thunder. Once they get past that first defender they’re basically pushing a 5-on-4 fast-break starting from the 3-point line. As good as Gasol and Bynum are, their weakness is in tracking smaller players heading straight towards them. Nor are they well suited to rotate out to big-men who hit outside shots (Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic). And Artest will be unable to help off of Durant. A better tactic would be to drop back and let them try to tangle with a formidable frontline (two seven-footers and Artest) using traditional offensive sets.
  3. Phil Jackson’s not confident his team can slow down Kevin Durant. Phil Jackson was fined $35k this week for comments insinuating that Durant gets unwarranted “superstar” treatment from the officials.Why would he need to probe Durant and get into his head? Phil's complaints are a sign of weakness-  he's unsure if Artest and the Lakers' defense can handle Durant. Phil usually reserves his jabs for later rounds and more threatening opponents (guys like LeBron, Dwight Howard, Carmelo, and Ginobili) with playoff experience. Yes, Durant can score but this is OKC’s first playoff appearance and their team is full of young inexperienced players. When you have to complain in the media then you have a problem that can’t be dealt with on the court. 
More than a Game
Prediction: Lakers in 6. The Lakers will struggle but it’s more about them working through their injuries. Too much size, experience, depth and talent will overpower the Thunder.