Eastern Conf. Finals Preview & Defending LeBron (because no one cares about Orlando/Boston)

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Yes the Eastern Conference finals is about to start, but let’s talk about LeBron since the Cavs' loss is more fun (and higher in importance according to the media) to talk about than anything on the court.

And while I’m at it, I’ll pile on LeBron like everyone else. After all, he must be a quitter since he had only 27 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists on an “off-night” in Game 6. Sure he made a bunch of mistakes (9 turnovers!) & shot poorly, but when Rondo posted similar numbers, the discussion was if Rondo was the best point guard in the league. Has any other small-forward ever compiled these stats & received so much criticism?

What happened to LeBron?

The Cavs lost because LeBron’s elbow prevented him from hitting outside shots. In Game 6, he hit two 3’s early in the 4^th quarter but once again shot below 40% (8/21) for the entire game. As I stated in my last post, the Cavs can’t win if LeBron shoots this poorly. 

There are no other rational explanations for why he played so poorly. Unfortunately, his refusal to acknowledge the impact of his elbow injury leaves the door open to plenty of wild & irrational explanations for his poor performance.

Did Cleveland's management & Coach Mike Brown make all the right moves?

Yes and no. With a healthy LeBron the Cavs could (can?) win a title with the talent they have, although it’s not an overwhelming roster that can step up when one major player is injured. And maybe GM Danny Ferry did everything possible; but at the end of the day they have less talent than the remaining teams in the playoffs. 

Their roster is loaded with players that play well with LeBron, but have trouble attacking top defenses on their own. Mo Williams (Cavs #2 scorer?) was very inconsistent against the Celtics- good numbers in Game 1 & 6 (21 pts on 50% shooting) but awful in Games 2-5 (9.5 pts on 32% shooting). Against the Celtics, #3-scorer Antawn Jamison averaged 12 points on 42% shooting. His offensive efficiency was much better in the regular season (15.8 pts on 48% fgs) and in the first round (19.4 pts on 51% fgs) against the Bulls. And as good as the Williams & Jamison are, they don’t match the combos that the remaining playoff teams have- Kobe/Gasol, Nash/Stoudemire, Howard/Lewis/Carter, & Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen.

Against the Celtics, the Cavs played unusual line-ups and combinations that didn’t look comfortable on the floor together. J.J. Hickson started for much of the season (77 games) & then averaged only 9 minutes against the Celtics. And the Cavs never really had a solid rotation involving Ilgauskas, O’Neal, Varejao, & Jamison. They kept trying to find the right defense but the Celtics (especially Garnett) exploited O’Neal, Ilgauskas, & Jamison either in the pick-and-roll or post.

Mike Brown is a solid coach with a healthy LeBron. However, two issues became evident against the Celtics:

1. An inability to adjust. With LeBron not playing well, the Cavs failed to make substantial changes. You have to skip Game 3 from any analysis because that was with a healthy LeBron. Through five games they made very few changes to move the ball faster and get other players more involved. They ran many of the same sets even though the results did not support doing so (two blowout losses in Cleveland). They made some changes in Game 6 (Shaq on Garnett) but the changes came too late. The Cavs just didn’t have enough time to integrate major changes in their offense so they still (incorrectly) relied on LeBron to create shots for everyone else.  
2. Personnel integration. The Ilgauskas-Jamison deal added talent to the Cavs but Coach Brown was unable to find an affective 8/9 man rotation against the Celtics. Ilgauskas played in Game 1(5 mins), Game 5 (14 mins) and Game 6 (14mins) but sat on the bench during Games 2-4. J.J. Hickson played 10+ mins in the first three games but then only played a few mins in the last three (~5mins in games 4/5 and then 10 seconds in Game 6). Players need consistent minutes to play well together. Playing only a few minutes together, or skipping games completely, hurts on-court chemistry.

It’s not clear who (if anybody) should be blamed for these two problems. Some of the blame could be given to both Mike Brown & Danny Ferry. Mike Brown used the players that Danny Ferry gave him, but maybe Brown should have done a better job managing minutes and making adjustments. Then again, Danny Ferry could have acquired players that fit together better. Or maybe if LeBron’s healthy then this discussion doesn’t even happen.

 Should LeBron stay?

From a basketball perspective, no. He could go to a number of other NBA teams that have more talent, are younger, and have better cap situations. But I have a feeling he’ll stay in Cleveland because he’s loyal to Ohio.

Orlando-Boston Preview

Orlando wins in 5 or 6. No one matches up well with the Magic who hit 3’s, attack, and rotate the ball very well. The Magic are also really hot right now having swept the Hawks & Bobcats.

In 2009, the Magic defeated the Celtics in the Eastern Semifinals after a resounding 101-82 Game 7 win in Boston. Since then, the Celtics’ big three have gotten a year older, while Orlando, with Nelson (now healthy), Howard, & Lewis, have added an NBA Finals appearance & Vince Carter to their resume. Mickael Pietrus & Matt Barnes have played very well at small forward in place of Hedo Turkoglu.

The Celtics will have trouble containing Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, & Pietrus on the perimeter and when they drive to the hoop after the ball is rotated. This is where Orlando can exploit its speed and a slow-rotating Celtics defense.

Kevin Garnett will once again be a major problem for the Magic. Garnett is too big for Lewis so the Magic may have to put Gortat or Howard on him. The Magic may also have problems with Rondo, depending on how they decide to guard him.

For the second consecutive season, too much speed & 3-point shooting will overwhelm the Celtics. 

Cavs Need a Healthy LeBron to Beat the Celtics

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My last post explained why LeBron's injured elbow is so critical to the Cavs success.  When his elbow was better in game 3, he & the Cavs dominated. But his poor shooting during the other four games largely explains why the Cavs are facing elimination in Game 6 against the Celtics.

Game 6 Preview

The Cavs can only win if LeBron is healthy. And the odds of that are low when you look at what's transpired so far. LeBron has played poorly with the exception of Game 3. Through five games he's averaging 26.8 pts on 46% shooting. The 46% shooting is low for James (50% during reg. season) but still respectable. But if you take out Game 3 (14-22 fgs & 38 pts) his numbers drop considerably to 19.2 pts on 40% shooting (29/71). So really he's struggled in four of five games. 

Both Cavs' wins have come off of at least two days of rest (Game 1 on 3 days rest and Game 3 off 2 days rest). So it appears that LeBron needs more than the one day of rest between Game 5 and 6. 

It's one thing to play with an injury but it's an entirely different challenge when that injury is to your shooting arm. Also, the elbow is critical to LeBron's jump-shot. If you look at his shooting motion (above), his elbow is bent outward instead of being straight. Since his elbow isn't straight, his shot requires that his elbow control the force and direction of his release. An injured elbow explains why he's been unable to shoot confidently from the perimeter.

It's okay for LeBron to play with an injury. If he just acknowledges the injury then his teammates & coaching staff can adjust accordingly. Instead the Cavs haven't changed and they continue to look sluggish and unable to attack the Celtics sagging defense. Either his injury has to get better or the Cavs must change their offense if they want to challenge the Celtics.

What the Celtics have done right so far-

• Control game tempo. They don't want to run with Cavs who are younger and feed off of fastbreaks and attacking the hoop. 
• Garnett dominating in the post. Jamison is a small 6'9" trying to challenge a lengthy Garnett at  6'11". Garnett gets whatever shot he wants against Jamison, he's just that much bigger. This isn't Jamison's fault, the Cavs have to adjust their defense. Varejao is probably their best bet against Garnett. Try starting Varejao & moving Parker to the bench.
• Keep LeBron out of the paint. It's not the Celtics' fault that LeBron is reluctant to take outside shots. If he stays out on the perimeter then the Celtics can cover or double everyone else.
• Rondo causing havoc. He's putting up huge numbers and taking what the Cavs are giving him (more on this later). What's most impressive is his decision making & that he hasn't forced the issue even though he's wide open on every screen.    

What the Cavs have done right-

• Make Rondo beat them. Rondo has put up huge numbers but the Cavs will take their chances with Rondo trying to score instead of Pierce, Garnett, & Allen all scoring 18+. The strategy of letting Rondo score while containing everyone else would work if the Cavs were playing better on offense. 
• Containing Pierce (13.6 pts on 35% shooting through 5 games). With Rondo dribbling so much, Pierce hasn't had the ball much and has been a non-factor against the Cavs. Certainly, LeBron's defense has also made things difficult for Paul.

NBA Conf. Semifinals Heating Up- Cavs look to Regroup & Lakers Look to Close

Predictions & Previews for Games 3 & 4 of the NBA Conference Semifinals-

Cavs-Celtics

Tied at 1-1, Cleveland is in a tough spot with two upcoming games in Boston. The Cavs would be favorites but LeBron's elbow has slowed him down in the last two games. He put up good numbers in Game 1 but he's been reluctant to shoot from the outside in both games. 

Joshua Gunter, The Plain Dealer

LeBron must be more aggressive from the perimeter if Cleveland wants to take control of the series. His ability to break down defenses requires that opponents challenge his outside shot. Right now the Celtics are backing off LeBron since he's reluctant to shoot. This allows the Celtics' defense to counter his penetration without giving up good looks to everyone else. The other Cavs (Z, Moon, West, & Anthony Parker) are much more effective when they're attacking a scrambling & slow-rotating Celtics defense. 

If LeBron's elbow is better (after what seems like a week off) then Cleveland will win both games. If not, look for a split in Boston and the series to move back to Clevland tied at 2-2

Orlando-Atlanta

This series is all but over with both teams heading in opposing directions after Game 2.  Mentally, the Hawks imploded during the third & fourth quarters of Game 2. Josh Smith lost his composure & Joe Johnson dribbles to much slowing down the rest of the offense. Al Horford, the Hawks' third or fourth option on offense, was their best option in Game 2 (24 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 9-13 fgs, and only 1 turnover). And he had to score most of his points against Dwight Howard, the Defensive Player of the Year. Teams that advance in the playoffs don't have this many chemistry & mental issues. Look for the teams to split in Atlanta & Orlando to finish the series in Game 5. 

Los Spurs-Los Suns

With any Suns' playoff series you have to wonder if their up-tempo style will work. So far it has as the Suns are heading to San Antonio with a 2-0 lead. I thought the Spurs would win in 5 or 6 but that's looking less likely as they've been unable to dictate tempo and keep the score under 100. For the Suns to win they need to score 105+ points in San Antonio, which i don't think they'll be able to. Look for the momentum to swing back in the Spurs' favor with two home wins this weekend.

Lakers-Jazz

This series is all but over as the Jazz haven't grown any taller since the series started. They've played valiantly but they just don't have a chance against the length of Bynum, Gasol, & Odom. The Lakers will probably fall asleep during Game 3 or 4 so that they have to finish the Jazz in Game 5. I'm still impressed with what the Jazz have accomplished especially when they're achievements are compared against Denver & Atlanta's- two teams achieving so much less with much more talent- inability to put up a good fight. Give a lot of credit to Jerry Sloan, Williams, Boozer, Millsap, and Jazz management.