Game 5 Preview: LA's Tied Despite Failing Strategy

Like a dog chasing its tail, the LA Lakers will continue their same strategy as they try to beat the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

For four games now the Lakers have been in control (leading in 3 games, tied in one) of each game through three quarters. It feels like Boston gets off to a quick start (Allen, Garnett, and Pierce in Games 2-4), LA catches up & takes control through halftime, and then both teams struggle through a seesaw third quarter. But the fourth quarter has been owned by the Celtics who have outscored the Lakers in 3 of 4 games (+7 in Game 1, +9 in Game 2, -1 in Game 3, & +9 in Game 4).

LA's Strategic Failure

During the fourth quarter the Celtics move the ball and make aggressive plays in the paint. Meanwhile, the Lakers pass the ball around the perimeter, get it to Kobe with ~8 seconds left in the 24, stand around, & then watch Kobe take a contested shot.  This hasn't worked through four games and yet the Lakers have the same strategy.

This is painful to watch because they keep doing the same thing over and over & it's unwatchable basketball! The Lakers continue to use the same offensive sets to try to get the ball into post players. This strategy fails in the fourth when Pau & Bynum are pushed out of their position. I wrote about this problem in my Game 4 preview and even included some solutions.  

LA's coaches have done nothing (outside of the Game 3 Kobe-Fisher two-man game) to change how they attack Boston. They have complained that Pau isn't tough and lashed out at Lamar Odom. Some of this is warranted but it's misdirected because it doesn't make sense to tell skilled players to become brute-strength players. Why play Boston's style? They Celtics want to stand around, push, and grab- this isn't LA's game. LA's coaches should be smart enough to find ways to get the ball into the paint and keep the ball moving.

The Celtics really haven't put a good game together and yet they're only two games from winning another championship. The Lakers have really lost this series so far.

Slowing Big Baby

Sadly i have to mention Glen Davis. He's played well so give him credit, but only the Lakers could turn him into a Finals hero for the Celtics. Going back to Game 1 i noticed that he was having his way with LA. Odom plays poor defense on Davis because he gives space to Davis who will then gather and initiate contact on Lamar to clear to get an open shot near the hoop. Bynum and Gasol have too much length for Davis to get space after clearing room.

If Bynum isn't able to play the Lakers could try putting Artest on Davis, Pau on Perkins, and Lamar on Pierce. Artest won't give Davis any room to create momentum and then initiate contact.

NBA Finals Preview: Lakers Are Tough Enough

For the 12th time in NBA history, the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics meet for the NBA title. Over the years, the two franchises have been noted for their differences. Most recently, the bigger and more physical Celtics beat LA in the 2008 Finals. Styles will again play a big part in the 2010 Finals with the Lakers ultimately winning in 5 or 6 games.

Despite major changes over the last two years, most people continue to claim that the Celtics are the more physical of the two teams. If you compare starters (Rondo-Fisher, Kobe-Allen, Pierce-Artest, Gasol-Garnett, and Bynum-Perkins) it's either even or the Lakers have the edge. A size advantage, deeper bench, the addition of Ron Artest, and the dominance of Kobe will propel LA to their 16th championship.

Frontcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

That was 2008. This is 2010 and the Lakers are a different team. In 2008, LA started Radmonovic, Odom, and Gasol. That's a quick and agile frontline that will score a lot of points. It won't work against slow and physical. The Lakers' current frontline is more physical than the same Pierce-Garnett-Perkins combo that the Celtics will go with.

You might make the argument that Garnett and Perkins are more physical than Gasol and Bynum but I don't think this is relevant or even accurate. During the regular season, Gasol and Bynum (66 points and 38 rebounds)  put up better numbers than Garnett and Perkins (44 points and 41 rebounds) as the teams split two games. The more physical Celtics that people talk about was Garnett and Perkins against Odom and Gasol.

If Bynum is unable to be productive (10 points, 8 rebounds, and 20 minutes) the Lakers will have serious problems and could lose the series. He can score against the Celtics and forces Perkins to play him instead of Gasol. Bynum's length will also cause problems for the Celtics who lack quick and aggressive help defenders who bother him. 

Bench Matchup- Edge Lakers

 

LA gets a big advantage when they go to the bench. The major difference since 2008 will be the fact that the Celtics no longer have James Posey. Instead, they'll have to go with Tony Allen for some minutes at shooting guard and small forward. He's not exactly a noted defender while Posey is a tough defender who made Kobe work harder & caused problems for multiple Lakers. Without Posey, the Celtics don't have anyone that can give Kobe any problems. 

Nate Robinson could give the Celtics a significant boost, but we don't know if he's going to get significant minutes or if he's going to be productive. He didn't do anything in the playoffs until Rondo got injured in Game 6 against Orlando.

Since the Lakers usually rotate Gasol, Odom, & Bynum at power forward & center, Rasheed Wallace & Glen Davis should not cause significant problems unless Bynum is injured or gets into foul trouble. Even if they do, Powell & Mbenga should be able to give the Lakers a few good minutes.

True Warrior vs The Truth: Slight Edge to Boston

Ron Artest and Paul Pierce don't like each other. They have history going back to when Artest pulled down Pierce's shorts while playing for the Pacers-

In February they got into it before the game started-

During the regular season, Pierce averaged only 13 points and 4.5 rebounds on 40% shooting. Those numbers might improve although Artest is also playing better now. Artest, who has struggled at times during the playoffs, will finally be in his element against a slow and physical team.

Backcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

Yes, Rondo is much better than he was in 2008 but the Lakers can live with him scoring as long as he doesn't get into the paint and create scoring chances for others. LA should switch Kobe onto Rondo and have Fisher chase Allen around the perimeter. Kobe should go under every screen and force Rondo to beat them with jump shots. Ray Allen will have some good shooting games. As long as he doesn't get a consistent 20+ points the Lakers will be fine.

The Celtics have no one to contain Kobe. He can get whatever shot he wants over Ray Allen or Tony Allen. They don't have the luxury of throwing James Posey at Kobe and Marquis Daniels is out indefinitely. Pierce will also get torched by Kobe.

Coaching- Even

Doc Rivers had the coaching advantage against Orlando and Cleveland, where the Celtics won three out of the first four games on the road. His coaching advantage ends as he takes on Phil Jackson who has plenty of tricks of his own. Look for both coaches to make adjustments and play games both on and off the court.

Intangibles- Even

The Celtics have found ways to win in the playoffs after a rocky regular season. They pushed the right buttons and upset the #1 and #2 teams in the Eastern Conference Finals. This might be a problem for the Lakers who are certainly capable of playing some sloppy and bad basketball. However, this won't happen  because the Lakers are still reeling from losing to the Celtics in 2008. An angry and vengeful Kobe will make sure that the Lakers are ready to beat the Celtics and repeat as NBA champions.