Game 7- LA's Championship to Lose

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

I really didn't feel there was a need for a Game 7 Preview after the Lakers easily beat the Celtics in Game 6. If the Lakers don't have a letdown then they should easily win tonight.

Using length, quickness, and ball movement, I predicted that LA would dominate this series as long as Bynum contributed. That has pretty much held true with Bynum logging 25+ minutes in 4 of the 5 first games and cancelling out Perkins in Game 6. Without Perkins, the Lakers can penetrate with ease and grab rebounds (52-39 in Game 6) on both ends of the court. This opens up uncontested perimeter shots or offensive put-backs.

There are a few things that may prevent LA from celebrating:

Consistently Inconsistent

Heading into Game 6 the Lakers were very focused since they were facing elimination. They dominated most of the game but espescially the first half. However, during the third quarter the Lakers struggled through a handful of offensive plays- walk the ball up, pass around the perimeter, stand around, & take a bad shot as the 24 runs out. Following Game 6 all they've heard about is how dominant they were, the Perkins injury, and how a Lakers victory would impact Kobe/Phil and Lakers vs Celtics. 

The Lakers need to be motivated (and somewhat angry) to play their best basketball. I'm not sure if they're in the right frame of mind to put together another dominating effort. 

Good Ron or Bad Ron?

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

Ron Artest had 15 point and hit 3 three's in Game 1 and Game 6. Outside of those two games he hasn't shot over 50% or scored over 10 points. If Ron is hitting shots then the Celtics will pay for doubling Kobe and Pau. Which Ron will show up?

Better Bench Production from Boston

I think we can safely assume that the Celtics' reserves will play better than they did in Game 6. Look for Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to score 15-20 especially since Wallace will probably start. Wallace can change the game because he stretches LA's defense. This will give Garnett, Allen, Pierce, and Rondo more room to operate without the fear of a double team. In Game 6 Wallace missed 6 three's and was 0-7.

Well-Rested Old Celtics

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Game 6 was less than 48 hours after Game 5 and a cross-country flight. This scenario favored the Lakers who are younger and had the home court advantage. Now the Celtics are well rested with two nights in LA and no cross-country flight. Plus, they really didn't put out a max effort in Game 6 with most of the starters playing few minutes in the second half. With more rest, the older Celtics will have better energy and more lift in their jump shots.

A Different Team Without Perk

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times / June 15, 2010)

With Wallace and Davis playing more minutes the Celtics have more offense. They can also try to increase the tempo and use different looks to confuse the Lakers. In Game 6 Doc Rivers experimented with a two pg lineup (Rondo and Robinson) and then a two sg lineup (Tony Allen and Ray Allen). This could cause the Lakers problems since Boston has had two days work on a this new offensive strategy.

This is the End

The Lakers have everything going for them so long as they stay focused they should beat Boston. Whatever changes the Celtics make, they shouldn't bother the Lakers, who have the personnel to overcome any adjustments.

But this is now a one-game series with immense pressure primarily on the Lakers' side. Pierce could get hot, Allen could hit 10 three's, an injury to the Lakers, or something else could tip the scales in the Celtics' favor. Stranger things have happened & history is not on the Lakers' side- Don Nelson's shot, 9 straight Celtics championships over the Lakers, and a Game 7 home loss to Boston in the 1969 NBA Finals.

Celtics Win Game 2: Allen Sizzles While Kobe Misses

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / June 6, 2010)

There are a lot of reasons why the Boston Celtics won Game 2 over the LA Lakers. Those reasons included Ray Allen's remarkable shooting, Rondo's plays in the fourth quarter, bad officiating, and Kobe in foul trouble. Many of the changes I mentioned in my Game 2 Finals preview came true but not to the extent I imagined.

Two important changes had a major impact on Game 2:

1) Keep Ray Allen on the floor. Obviously, Ray had a ridiculous first half, but he was also a factor in the second half even though he only scored five points. He drew so much attention from LA that he created mismatches and scoring opportunities for others. At 1:29 of the video, Derek Fisher and Ron Artest both guard Allen leaving Paul Pierce for a wide open jump shot:

2) Defending Kobe Bryant. The Celtics did a much better job defending Kobe and they were also the beneficiary of the three offensive fouls called on Kobe. The two offensive fouls Kobe received in the second half were terrible calls. However, they did a do a better job of holding their ground when Kobe penetrated and making him take difficult shots. Ray Allen stayed out of foul trouble and did a good job of just making Kobe work hard for every shot he took. Even Tony Allen had some good aggressive minutes guarding Kobe.

How the game was decided

The score is tied 85-85 with 6:15 left in the fourth. Andrew Bynum has 21 points, Kobe has 13, and Pau Gasol has 24 points. How many touches did Bynum and Gasol get for the next ~5 minutes in crunch time? If you answered two, you guessed correctly.

"The more things change, the more things stay the same"....."They are who we thought they were"...(insert your cliche here)

For most of Kobe's career there has been a debate about his unwillingness to share the ball and play team basketball. During the last few years, his ability to hit good and bad shots has given him the upper hand in this discussion. Even in Game 1 he was consistently patient and distributed the ball throughout the game.

With the score tied at 85, Kobe makes two plays by himself on the Lakers next two possessions to give the Lakers a 90-87 lead. The Celtics would score the next 11 points while the Lakers would commit turnovers and watch Kobe miss three shots. The shots Kobe missed included a deep three-pointer and two drives into the key attacking multiple help defenders.

Instead of working through Bynum and Gasol, which had worked for seven quarters, Kobe was impatient and tried to take the game over all by himself. This is the conundrum that Kobe presents. Everyone knows he's the mamba, closer, finisher, etc. But through three quarters Pau and Bynum controlled the game. We've seen the shots Kobe's made in the past, so we don't think twice when he takes over the game even at the expense of good team offense. Why not get the ball to Pau/Bynum or run screen-roll to get the Celtics' defense to rotate? Instead, the other Lakers stood and watched as Kobe tried to take down the Celtics all by himself. It didn't work this time, what will the Lakers do next time?

Lakers Control the Paint and Beat Boston in Game 1

ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

The formerly soft LA Lakers convincingly beat the Boston Celtics 102-89 in Game 1 of the 2010 NBA Finals. In my Finals Preview, I predicted several reasons why LA would dominate this series. These predictions held, and the Lakers had a relatively easy win. There were moments when it seemed like the Celtics would get back into the game but they never did.

Things the Lakers did well

Pau Gasol & Andrew Bynum dominated Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins even though Bynum only played a few minutes in the second half (not sure if he even played in the fourth quarter). Gasol (23 points and 14 rebounds) outplayed Garnett and Perkins who together put up 24 and 7 rebounds. Bynum's numbers (10 points and 6 rebounds) may not look significant but he created openings for his teammates since the Celtics have to keep someone on him when he's near the hoop. He was also able to tap rebounds & loose balls to himself or teammates. Gasol and Bynum were largely responsible for the Lakers 16-0 advantage in second chance points. 

LA's backcourt switched so that Kobe Bryant guarded Rajon Rondo. Early in the game Rondo created several scoring opportunities when Kobe left him near the hoop to help with post defense. For the rest of the game, Kobe did a good job of staying in front of Rondo and not leaving Rondo to help.

On offense, Kobe pretty much did whatever he wanted on his way to 30 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. He didn't have a great shooting night (10-22) but he was able to score and create shots for others. Kobe got into trouble a few times when he tried to shoot over two/three Celtics or pass after the defense was all over him.

Although Lamar Odom was mired in foul trouble during most of the game, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown came off the bench to give the Lakers some good minutes. Both guards were able to penetrate and  collapse the Celtics' interior defense. Brown got to the rim at will. As a big guard, he creates some of the same matchup problems that Kobe does.

Ron Artest played extremely well on both ends of the court. This was despite getting into foul trouble late in the first quarter which prevented him from playing much of the second quarter. Sure Pierce ended up with 24 but Ron made him work for every point. He also played great defense when he rotated onto a center or power forward. Ron played well on offense hitting from all over the floor including three three-pointers.

Things the Celtics did well

Paul Pierce had a huge game (24 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists) even though Ron Artest played tough defense against him. Half of his points came from the free-throw line but he did miss all four of his three-point  shots. His ability to get to the line could benefit the Celtics later in the series by getting LA's big men in foul trouble and creating open looks for his teammates.

Despite meager (12 points and 7 rebounds) numbers, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis had productive contributions. They were both able to dictate how they wanted to play instead of being pushed around by Gasol and Bynum. Davis also did a great job when defending Gasol. He was able to push Gasol out to the three point line instead of allowing him to get the ball at the high post. And when Gasol went into the low post, Davis had already pushed him from his comfort zone.

NBA Finals Preview: Lakers Are Tough Enough

For the 12th time in NBA history, the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics meet for the NBA title. Over the years, the two franchises have been noted for their differences. Most recently, the bigger and more physical Celtics beat LA in the 2008 Finals. Styles will again play a big part in the 2010 Finals with the Lakers ultimately winning in 5 or 6 games.

Despite major changes over the last two years, most people continue to claim that the Celtics are the more physical of the two teams. If you compare starters (Rondo-Fisher, Kobe-Allen, Pierce-Artest, Gasol-Garnett, and Bynum-Perkins) it's either even or the Lakers have the edge. A size advantage, deeper bench, the addition of Ron Artest, and the dominance of Kobe will propel LA to their 16th championship.

Frontcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

That was 2008. This is 2010 and the Lakers are a different team. In 2008, LA started Radmonovic, Odom, and Gasol. That's a quick and agile frontline that will score a lot of points. It won't work against slow and physical. The Lakers' current frontline is more physical than the same Pierce-Garnett-Perkins combo that the Celtics will go with.

You might make the argument that Garnett and Perkins are more physical than Gasol and Bynum but I don't think this is relevant or even accurate. During the regular season, Gasol and Bynum (66 points and 38 rebounds)  put up better numbers than Garnett and Perkins (44 points and 41 rebounds) as the teams split two games. The more physical Celtics that people talk about was Garnett and Perkins against Odom and Gasol.

If Bynum is unable to be productive (10 points, 8 rebounds, and 20 minutes) the Lakers will have serious problems and could lose the series. He can score against the Celtics and forces Perkins to play him instead of Gasol. Bynum's length will also cause problems for the Celtics who lack quick and aggressive help defenders who bother him. 

Bench Matchup- Edge Lakers

 

LA gets a big advantage when they go to the bench. The major difference since 2008 will be the fact that the Celtics no longer have James Posey. Instead, they'll have to go with Tony Allen for some minutes at shooting guard and small forward. He's not exactly a noted defender while Posey is a tough defender who made Kobe work harder & caused problems for multiple Lakers. Without Posey, the Celtics don't have anyone that can give Kobe any problems. 

Nate Robinson could give the Celtics a significant boost, but we don't know if he's going to get significant minutes or if he's going to be productive. He didn't do anything in the playoffs until Rondo got injured in Game 6 against Orlando.

Since the Lakers usually rotate Gasol, Odom, & Bynum at power forward & center, Rasheed Wallace & Glen Davis should not cause significant problems unless Bynum is injured or gets into foul trouble. Even if they do, Powell & Mbenga should be able to give the Lakers a few good minutes.

True Warrior vs The Truth: Slight Edge to Boston

Ron Artest and Paul Pierce don't like each other. They have history going back to when Artest pulled down Pierce's shorts while playing for the Pacers-

In February they got into it before the game started-

During the regular season, Pierce averaged only 13 points and 4.5 rebounds on 40% shooting. Those numbers might improve although Artest is also playing better now. Artest, who has struggled at times during the playoffs, will finally be in his element against a slow and physical team.

Backcourt Matchup- Edge Lakers

Yes, Rondo is much better than he was in 2008 but the Lakers can live with him scoring as long as he doesn't get into the paint and create scoring chances for others. LA should switch Kobe onto Rondo and have Fisher chase Allen around the perimeter. Kobe should go under every screen and force Rondo to beat them with jump shots. Ray Allen will have some good shooting games. As long as he doesn't get a consistent 20+ points the Lakers will be fine.

The Celtics have no one to contain Kobe. He can get whatever shot he wants over Ray Allen or Tony Allen. They don't have the luxury of throwing James Posey at Kobe and Marquis Daniels is out indefinitely. Pierce will also get torched by Kobe.

Coaching- Even

Doc Rivers had the coaching advantage against Orlando and Cleveland, where the Celtics won three out of the first four games on the road. His coaching advantage ends as he takes on Phil Jackson who has plenty of tricks of his own. Look for both coaches to make adjustments and play games both on and off the court.

Intangibles- Even

The Celtics have found ways to win in the playoffs after a rocky regular season. They pushed the right buttons and upset the #1 and #2 teams in the Eastern Conference Finals. This might be a problem for the Lakers who are certainly capable of playing some sloppy and bad basketball. However, this won't happen  because the Lakers are still reeling from losing to the Celtics in 2008. An angry and vengeful Kobe will make sure that the Lakers are ready to beat the Celtics and repeat as NBA champions. 

Lakers-Suns Game 5 Preview & Breaking the 2-3 Zone

 (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

After losing another game to the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers should be very concerned. The loss by only nine points in Game 4 hides the fact that the Lakers, if it weren't for Kobe Bryant hitting ridiculous (& bad) shots, should have lost by 20+ points.The Lakers are not doing a good job guarding the pick-and-roll and have been unable to adjust to the Suns' 2-3 zone.

106 points for the Lakers is good, but they cannot expect to win if they give up 115. To make matters worse, Nash & Stoudemire didn't have huge games. Instead, the Suns' bench did the majority of the damage in the second and fourth quarters.

When defending against the Suns, you need long/athletic shootings guard and small forwards to rotate to shooters, fill gaps, and pick-up big men on screen-rolls. The Lakers only have three players (Odom, Bryant, and Brown) who fit this build. 

The Lakers’ zone offense also leaves them in a bad spot because they usually have a guard in the corner (Fisher) who has to catch up to a guard that’s defensing near or above the free-throw line. This has lead to some bad switches and open perimeter shots for the Suns as the Lakers scramble to match-up on defense.

LA can try a few different things to mix things up against the Suns. I'm not sure if any of these options will shut the Suns down but they're decent options since what they're currently doing isn't working:

1.    Switch Kobe and Fisher so that Kobe guards Nash & Fisher guards Jason Richardson. This could slow down the Nash-Stoudemire pick-and-roll. The Suns could then try to post Richardson against Fisher. This is okay because it gets the Suns out of pick-and-roll situations, prevents Richardson from launching 3's, and might not work because Fisher is a crafty defender.

2.    Put Ron Artest on Nash or Stoudemire. Artest might be able to do a decent job on Stoudemire either in the post or if he has to switch onto Stoudemire when he's guarding Nash. Right now, Artest isn’t too involved in the defense since he’s just chasing Hill and Richardson around the perimeter.

3.    A really radical option would be to play some sort of zone (3-2?). This seems like a good idea since the high screen-roll is pointless against two guards who will just switch. The problem with the zone is that it often yields open shots & a variety of opportunities for teams like the Suns with good wing players (Richardson, Barbosa, Hill, & Dudley). But trying this out for a few plays, LA could slow the Suns down for a few moments and would also allow Gasol & Bynum to stay near the paint where they can protect the hoop. The Suns' offense is designed to expose their advantage over Bynum & Gasol who have trouble guarding Stoudemire when he's dribbling at them.

Bynum

Yes, everyone knows that Bynum is injured. His injury should be a major concern for the Lakers for both the remainder of this series and if they advance to face Orlando or Boston. His knee is preventing him from extending and making quick moves on offense. Bynum could be causing problems if he could rotate on defense and also move quickly through the Suns' zone defense. They could try using Powell and Benga who could cause some problems.

Breaking the 2-3 Zone

Despite the Suns' 2-3 zone, the Lakers have still been productive in both road games (109 and 106 points). So, again, the zone is a problem but they need to make more improvements on defense. Here’s an excellent breakdown of what the Lakers are doing wrong:

A few takeaways from the video:

- The key to breaking the zone is the decision made by the player who gets it in the high post. He will have two or three defenders converging on him (see video at 0:30) so he can either drive or pass to someone cutting. Since the Lakers are still getting used to attacking the zone, the high-post player has been reluctant or uncomfortable with making the right move.

- At 1:49 Ron Artest panics as defenders converge on him. He then takes a shot while driving into three defenders. If Ron passes to the right,Lamar Odom is wide open and Grant Hill will be forced to chase Lamar or leave Gasol open under the hoop.

- At 2:22 Lamar cuts too far to the low-block and the makes another mistake when he meets the pass to high and far from the high-post. If he stays in the paint and comes to the high-post he has an open shot or he can drive right to the hoop. Instead of moving into the high-post he moved into positions used in the triangle offense.

- At 4:42 Kobe gets the ball at the high-post as two defenders converge on him. For the Lakers to beat the zone Lamar must cut more aggressively into the weak-side opening. At this point, Kobe could have made an easy pass to Lamar. But Lamar didn’t cut quickly and the pass is more difficult because Dragic gets in the way. If the pass gets through, Lamar has a bunch options since a 3-2 advantage has been created. He can shoot, drive, or pass to Shannon Brown who will be open in the corner. Again, the main problem is that the Lakers are not comfortable with attacking the 2-3 zone. Lamar is too slow or reluctant to cut and Kobe’s not sure he can make the pass even though it looks like there’s enough room.

The 2-3 zone can be broken when two things happen:

1) The ball is entered into the high-post

2) The ball then gets swung to someone cutting through the other high-post on the weak-side. This player will then have a 3-2 advantage where he can shoot, pass, or drive.

Game 5 Prediction

My earlier prediction of the Lakers winning in six could still happen. But as I anticipated in that post, the injury to Bynum is really hurting LA. In Game 5, look for the Lakers to play better defense and do a better job of executing on offense. I don’t anticipate that the Suns’ bench will be as productive as they were in Game 4. The Lakers will also make a few adjustments, shoot better, and take advantage of playing at home.