Eastern Conf. Finals Preview & Defending LeBron (because no one cares about Orlando/Boston)

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Yes the Eastern Conference finals is about to start, but let’s talk about LeBron since the Cavs' loss is more fun (and higher in importance according to the media) to talk about than anything on the court.

And while I’m at it, I’ll pile on LeBron like everyone else. After all, he must be a quitter since he had only 27 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists on an “off-night” in Game 6. Sure he made a bunch of mistakes (9 turnovers!) & shot poorly, but when Rondo posted similar numbers, the discussion was if Rondo was the best point guard in the league. Has any other small-forward ever compiled these stats & received so much criticism?

What happened to LeBron?

The Cavs lost because LeBron’s elbow prevented him from hitting outside shots. In Game 6, he hit two 3’s early in the 4^th quarter but once again shot below 40% (8/21) for the entire game. As I stated in my last post, the Cavs can’t win if LeBron shoots this poorly. 

There are no other rational explanations for why he played so poorly. Unfortunately, his refusal to acknowledge the impact of his elbow injury leaves the door open to plenty of wild & irrational explanations for his poor performance.

Did Cleveland's management & Coach Mike Brown make all the right moves?

Yes and no. With a healthy LeBron the Cavs could (can?) win a title with the talent they have, although it’s not an overwhelming roster that can step up when one major player is injured. And maybe GM Danny Ferry did everything possible; but at the end of the day they have less talent than the remaining teams in the playoffs. 

Their roster is loaded with players that play well with LeBron, but have trouble attacking top defenses on their own. Mo Williams (Cavs #2 scorer?) was very inconsistent against the Celtics- good numbers in Game 1 & 6 (21 pts on 50% shooting) but awful in Games 2-5 (9.5 pts on 32% shooting). Against the Celtics, #3-scorer Antawn Jamison averaged 12 points on 42% shooting. His offensive efficiency was much better in the regular season (15.8 pts on 48% fgs) and in the first round (19.4 pts on 51% fgs) against the Bulls. And as good as the Williams & Jamison are, they don’t match the combos that the remaining playoff teams have- Kobe/Gasol, Nash/Stoudemire, Howard/Lewis/Carter, & Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen.

Against the Celtics, the Cavs played unusual line-ups and combinations that didn’t look comfortable on the floor together. J.J. Hickson started for much of the season (77 games) & then averaged only 9 minutes against the Celtics. And the Cavs never really had a solid rotation involving Ilgauskas, O’Neal, Varejao, & Jamison. They kept trying to find the right defense but the Celtics (especially Garnett) exploited O’Neal, Ilgauskas, & Jamison either in the pick-and-roll or post.

Mike Brown is a solid coach with a healthy LeBron. However, two issues became evident against the Celtics:

1. An inability to adjust. With LeBron not playing well, the Cavs failed to make substantial changes. You have to skip Game 3 from any analysis because that was with a healthy LeBron. Through five games they made very few changes to move the ball faster and get other players more involved. They ran many of the same sets even though the results did not support doing so (two blowout losses in Cleveland). They made some changes in Game 6 (Shaq on Garnett) but the changes came too late. The Cavs just didn’t have enough time to integrate major changes in their offense so they still (incorrectly) relied on LeBron to create shots for everyone else.  
2. Personnel integration. The Ilgauskas-Jamison deal added talent to the Cavs but Coach Brown was unable to find an affective 8/9 man rotation against the Celtics. Ilgauskas played in Game 1(5 mins), Game 5 (14 mins) and Game 6 (14mins) but sat on the bench during Games 2-4. J.J. Hickson played 10+ mins in the first three games but then only played a few mins in the last three (~5mins in games 4/5 and then 10 seconds in Game 6). Players need consistent minutes to play well together. Playing only a few minutes together, or skipping games completely, hurts on-court chemistry.

It’s not clear who (if anybody) should be blamed for these two problems. Some of the blame could be given to both Mike Brown & Danny Ferry. Mike Brown used the players that Danny Ferry gave him, but maybe Brown should have done a better job managing minutes and making adjustments. Then again, Danny Ferry could have acquired players that fit together better. Or maybe if LeBron’s healthy then this discussion doesn’t even happen.

 Should LeBron stay?

From a basketball perspective, no. He could go to a number of other NBA teams that have more talent, are younger, and have better cap situations. But I have a feeling he’ll stay in Cleveland because he’s loyal to Ohio.

Orlando-Boston Preview

Orlando wins in 5 or 6. No one matches up well with the Magic who hit 3’s, attack, and rotate the ball very well. The Magic are also really hot right now having swept the Hawks & Bobcats.

In 2009, the Magic defeated the Celtics in the Eastern Semifinals after a resounding 101-82 Game 7 win in Boston. Since then, the Celtics’ big three have gotten a year older, while Orlando, with Nelson (now healthy), Howard, & Lewis, have added an NBA Finals appearance & Vince Carter to their resume. Mickael Pietrus & Matt Barnes have played very well at small forward in place of Hedo Turkoglu.

The Celtics will have trouble containing Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, & Pietrus on the perimeter and when they drive to the hoop after the ball is rotated. This is where Orlando can exploit its speed and a slow-rotating Celtics defense.

Kevin Garnett will once again be a major problem for the Magic. Garnett is too big for Lewis so the Magic may have to put Gortat or Howard on him. The Magic may also have problems with Rondo, depending on how they decide to guard him.

For the second consecutive season, too much speed & 3-point shooting will overwhelm the Celtics. 

Cavs Need a Healthy LeBron to Beat the Celtics

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

My last post explained why LeBron's injured elbow is so critical to the Cavs success.  When his elbow was better in game 3, he & the Cavs dominated. But his poor shooting during the other four games largely explains why the Cavs are facing elimination in Game 6 against the Celtics.

Game 6 Preview

The Cavs can only win if LeBron is healthy. And the odds of that are low when you look at what's transpired so far. LeBron has played poorly with the exception of Game 3. Through five games he's averaging 26.8 pts on 46% shooting. The 46% shooting is low for James (50% during reg. season) but still respectable. But if you take out Game 3 (14-22 fgs & 38 pts) his numbers drop considerably to 19.2 pts on 40% shooting (29/71). So really he's struggled in four of five games. 

Both Cavs' wins have come off of at least two days of rest (Game 1 on 3 days rest and Game 3 off 2 days rest). So it appears that LeBron needs more than the one day of rest between Game 5 and 6. 

It's one thing to play with an injury but it's an entirely different challenge when that injury is to your shooting arm. Also, the elbow is critical to LeBron's jump-shot. If you look at his shooting motion (above), his elbow is bent outward instead of being straight. Since his elbow isn't straight, his shot requires that his elbow control the force and direction of his release. An injured elbow explains why he's been unable to shoot confidently from the perimeter.

It's okay for LeBron to play with an injury. If he just acknowledges the injury then his teammates & coaching staff can adjust accordingly. Instead the Cavs haven't changed and they continue to look sluggish and unable to attack the Celtics sagging defense. Either his injury has to get better or the Cavs must change their offense if they want to challenge the Celtics.

What the Celtics have done right so far-

• Control game tempo. They don't want to run with Cavs who are younger and feed off of fastbreaks and attacking the hoop. 
• Garnett dominating in the post. Jamison is a small 6'9" trying to challenge a lengthy Garnett at  6'11". Garnett gets whatever shot he wants against Jamison, he's just that much bigger. This isn't Jamison's fault, the Cavs have to adjust their defense. Varejao is probably their best bet against Garnett. Try starting Varejao & moving Parker to the bench.
• Keep LeBron out of the paint. It's not the Celtics' fault that LeBron is reluctant to take outside shots. If he stays out on the perimeter then the Celtics can cover or double everyone else.
• Rondo causing havoc. He's putting up huge numbers and taking what the Cavs are giving him (more on this later). What's most impressive is his decision making & that he hasn't forced the issue even though he's wide open on every screen.    

What the Cavs have done right-

• Make Rondo beat them. Rondo has put up huge numbers but the Cavs will take their chances with Rondo trying to score instead of Pierce, Garnett, & Allen all scoring 18+. The strategy of letting Rondo score while containing everyone else would work if the Cavs were playing better on offense. 
• Containing Pierce (13.6 pts on 35% shooting through 5 games). With Rondo dribbling so much, Pierce hasn't had the ball much and has been a non-factor against the Cavs. Certainly, LeBron's defense has also made things difficult for Paul.

NBA Conf. Semifinals Heating Up- Cavs look to Regroup & Lakers Look to Close

Predictions & Previews for Games 3 & 4 of the NBA Conference Semifinals-

Cavs-Celtics

Tied at 1-1, Cleveland is in a tough spot with two upcoming games in Boston. The Cavs would be favorites but LeBron's elbow has slowed him down in the last two games. He put up good numbers in Game 1 but he's been reluctant to shoot from the outside in both games. 

Joshua Gunter, The Plain Dealer

LeBron must be more aggressive from the perimeter if Cleveland wants to take control of the series. His ability to break down defenses requires that opponents challenge his outside shot. Right now the Celtics are backing off LeBron since he's reluctant to shoot. This allows the Celtics' defense to counter his penetration without giving up good looks to everyone else. The other Cavs (Z, Moon, West, & Anthony Parker) are much more effective when they're attacking a scrambling & slow-rotating Celtics defense. 

If LeBron's elbow is better (after what seems like a week off) then Cleveland will win both games. If not, look for a split in Boston and the series to move back to Clevland tied at 2-2

Orlando-Atlanta

This series is all but over with both teams heading in opposing directions after Game 2.  Mentally, the Hawks imploded during the third & fourth quarters of Game 2. Josh Smith lost his composure & Joe Johnson dribbles to much slowing down the rest of the offense. Al Horford, the Hawks' third or fourth option on offense, was their best option in Game 2 (24 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 9-13 fgs, and only 1 turnover). And he had to score most of his points against Dwight Howard, the Defensive Player of the Year. Teams that advance in the playoffs don't have this many chemistry & mental issues. Look for the teams to split in Atlanta & Orlando to finish the series in Game 5. 

Los Spurs-Los Suns

With any Suns' playoff series you have to wonder if their up-tempo style will work. So far it has as the Suns are heading to San Antonio with a 2-0 lead. I thought the Spurs would win in 5 or 6 but that's looking less likely as they've been unable to dictate tempo and keep the score under 100. For the Suns to win they need to score 105+ points in San Antonio, which i don't think they'll be able to. Look for the momentum to swing back in the Spurs' favor with two home wins this weekend.

Lakers-Jazz

This series is all but over as the Jazz haven't grown any taller since the series started. They've played valiantly but they just don't have a chance against the length of Bynum, Gasol, & Odom. The Lakers will probably fall asleep during Game 3 or 4 so that they have to finish the Jazz in Game 5. I'm still impressed with what the Jazz have accomplished especially when they're achievements are compared against Denver & Atlanta's- two teams achieving so much less with much more talent- inability to put up a good fight. Give a lot of credit to Jerry Sloan, Williams, Boozer, Millsap, and Jazz management. 

Bad Idea: Los Suns to Mix Playoffs & Politics Tonight

Deirdre Hamill/The Arizona Republic

Tonight in Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs, the Phoenix Suns will wear alternative jerseys that say "Los Suns" to voice their displeasure over the Arizona's tough new immigration law. Suns' managing partner Steve Sarver explained-

"The frustration with the federal government's failure to deal with the issue of illegal immigration resulted in passage of a flawed state law. However intended, the result of passing this law is that our basic principles of equal rights and protection under the law are being called into question, and Arizona's already struggling economy will suffer even further setbacks at a time when the state can ill-afford them."

"Hopefully, it's all going to get worked out and the federal government will step in and there'll be a national solution. I realize that immigration is a problem and we have issues that need to be dealt with. I just don't think this bill accomplishes that," said the team executive. "I don't think it's the right way to handle the immigration problem."

Regardless of your political viewpoint, this is not a good move for the NBA and the Suns, who are trying to win an important playoff series. Yes, the Suns' Steve Nash said that the team voted for the alternative jerseys but they're representing the organization & the NBA so we don't if everyone involved would agree to this. Do you think all Suns' employees & NBA players support this protest? I doubt it.

The bigger question involves if an employer can mandate that employees support their political messages. I'm not a legal expert, but somehow i don't think employers have this power. As an NBA player you cannot question the officiating but you're expected to support a political viewpoint that you might disagree with, how can this happen?

  

From a basketball perspective this has its own problems- what if you're a player, owner, or other employee that doesn't support this move or simply doesn't want to express political views at work? Do you really want to go against the majority & stir-up discontent in the locker room? How would this impact team chemistry? Yes, the political issue is much more important than a bball game but it can have a negative impact on the game. 

Enough About Politics, Get to the BBall

Where are all the Lamar Odom haters? Or are they just around when things go wrong and they need to blame somebody? In Game 2 against the Jazz, Lamar had 11 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, & 3 blocks in only 28 minutes.

Laker fans, don't worry Sasha Vujacic will soon return to bolster the bench. His 2.8 points & 30% 3-point shooting will definitely be an upgrade form Ron Ron launching 3's (1-7 in game 2 & 0-3 in game 1).  

Doomsday in Lakerdom? It's not over yet

Derek Fisher, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times / April 22, 2010)

http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-04/53438471.jpg

Yes, the LA Lakers are struggling against the Oklahoma Thunder, but their first round playoff series isn't over yet. They should be able to get by the Thunder in 6 or 7 if they can just make a few adjustments and make some open shots!

 

My prediction that an attacking Thunder would exploit the slow-lengthy Lakers came to fruition in games 3 and 4. To change the momentum & regain control of the series, the Lakers need to do a few a few things in game 5:

1. Perimeter players have to hit open shots! OKC is sagging on Bynum & Gasol, who have been effective when they've gotten touches. Fisher, Odom, Bryant, Farmar, & Artest must make a few three's to open up the lane for driving and give post players more room. The Lakers were 10-31 and 4-22 from the 3-point line in games 3 and 4, respectively. Only Fisher shot well in both games (4-5 in game 3 and 3-6 in game 4). By allowing perimeter defenders to double-down OKC takes advantage of its speed and athleticism and overcomes its inability to guard Bryant, Gasol,  & Bynum on a 1-1 basis.  
2. Slowdown the OKC attack by limiting easy outlet passes. In games 3 & 4, the Thunder held a 47-9 advantage over the Lakers in fastbreak points. Laker bigs need to prevent easy (don't foul, just put your hands up) outlets to Westbrook who starts their break. Hitting outside shots will also slow the Thunder attack.
3. Stop overplaying perimeter players. Too many Lakers are reaching and getting beat by Westbrook, Durant, & Harden. See if the young Thunder can hit contested jump shots as the shot clock winds down. Once they penetrate & get into the lane, too many bad things happen. The longer the shot clock lasts, the better the Lakers' chances.
4. Kobe needs to be shoot more than 45%. Through the first four games, he's shot 38% which won't get it done. At this point, it's not important to try to figure out exactly why he only took 10 shots in game 4. If the Lakers want to win and avoid a colossal upset, then he has to be more aggressive and make more shots.

Lakers-Thunder Preview: 3 Reasons Why LA Will Struggle

(http://my.lakers.com/blogs/)

The LA Lakers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The Lakers will struggle against OKC because of injuries, perimeter defense and an inability to guard Kevin Durant.

1. Injuries: The Lakers will look sluggish as they integrate Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant back into the rotation. The triangle operates instinctively so that players exploit their strengths through picks and cuts. As the season ended, the offense was run through Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, two players that don’t naturally dominate the ball. It’s not fun watching them try to stay aggressive while working Bynum and Bryant (two guys who need the ball) back into the offense. 
2. Over-Aggressive Perimeter Defense: Fisher, Bryant, and Artest are too aggressive when picking-up perimeter opponents.
   
   
   
   
   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong) 
   They begin defending opponents 2-3 feet beyond the 3-point line when they’re not even attacking. This plays right into the hands of athletic guards like Westbrook, Sefolosha, and Harden who love to penetrate. I know they have this “funneling” philosophy but it’s actually an especially bad tactic against the Thunder. Once they get past that first defender they’re basically pushing a 5-on-4 fast-break starting from the 3-point line. As good as Gasol and Bynum are, their weakness is in tracking smaller players heading straight towards them. Nor are they well suited to rotate out to big-men who hit outside shots (Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic). And Artest will be unable to help off of Durant. A better tactic would be to drop back and let them try to tangle with a formidable frontline (two seven-footers and Artest) using traditional offensive sets.
3. Phil Jackson’s not confident his team can slow down Kevin Durant. Phil Jackson was fined $35k this week for comments insinuating that Durant gets unwarranted “superstar” treatment from the officials.Why would he need to probe Durant and get into his head? Phil's complaints are a sign of weakness-  he's unsure if Artest and the Lakers' defense can handle Durant. Phil usually reserves his jabs for later rounds and more threatening opponents (guys like LeBron, Dwight Howard, Carmelo, and Ginobili) with playoff experience. Yes, Durant can score but this is OKC’s first playoff appearance and their team is full of young inexperienced players. When you have to complain in the media then you have a problem that can’t be dealt with on the court. 

Prediction: Lakers in 6. The Lakers will struggle but it’s more about them working through their injuries. Too much size, experience, depth and talent will overpower the Thunder.

ESPN’s Guru of Go- A Must Watch for BBall Fans

(Paul Westhead, Bo Kimble, Hank Gathers , & Jeff Fryer at the 1989 NCAA tournament)

While it has been 20 years since LMU's Hank Gathers passed away, that moment, and a wonderful story involving Paul Westhead and Bo Kimble, are thoughtfully retold in Guru of Go, the latest episode of ESPN’S 30 for 30. I knew some parts of the tragedy but the documentary uncovered aspects of the story that I forgot, or never new, about.

I enjoyed this documentary immensely because it tells the story of how three individuals persevered from rejection to form one of basketball's most beloved teams. And then despite the mid-season loss of Gathers, Westhead & Kimble somehow lead LMU to the Elite Eight. This documentary is a must watch for every basketball junkie.

Paul Westhead won an NBA Championship with the LA Lakers in 1980 and a WNBA Championship in 2007 with the Phoenix Mercury. He is best known for his fast-paced offense -“pouring gasoline on fire”- that is most evident in his LMU teams of the late 1980’s. Westhead's LMU teams were lead by Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble, who each averaged 30+ points in 1990. While his system is still controversial, and not entirely successful, no one can deny the success he has had with the Lakers, LMU, & Phoenix Mercury.

After winning the 1980 NBA Championship as a rookie head coach, Westhead was fired from the Lakers in 1981. In the documentary Kareem Abdul-Jabbar & Westhead speculate that Magic Johnson didn’t like Westhead’s offense. And at the press conference firing Westhead, Lakers’ owner Jerry Buss all but confirms this. What’s surprising is that they claim that his offensive system was too slow.

After an unsuccessful stint with the Chicago Bulls, Westhead returned to Southern California as the coach of the Loyola Marymount Tigers in 1985. Coaching a small basketball program in the WCC conference was surely a step down from the NBA but his luck changed when he was able to convince two Philly kids (Gathers & Kimble) to transfer from USC.

(Bo Kimble & Hank Gathers)

It’s not quite clear why they transferred but their scholarships were revoked (academically ineligible according to USC) following their freshman year and the arrival of new coach George Raveling. Interestingly, Raveling would go on to become one of USC’s most highly regarded basketball coaches.

Gathers & Kimble were perfect for Westhead’s offense which would try to outscore & wear opponents down with a relentless running attack. Their strategy involved taking shots early in the shot clock (within 10 seconds?). The point guard would drive down the middle of the court with the shooting guard and small forward filling the right & left sides of the court. If they couldn’t get a shot with this initial push they would hit the power forward or center trailing down the middle. This system, which provided plenty of open space, allowed Gathers to use his superior quickness and shooting to easily score on bigger opponents. Gathers, an undersized power forward at 6' 7", excelled in this system becoming the second player to lead the NCAA in scoring (32.7 ppg) and rebounding (13.7 rpg) in the same season.

Lead by Kimble & Gathers, LMU was building momentum for the NCAA tournament when Gathers collapsed in a WCC tournament game against Portland on March 4th, 1990. This segment of the documentary is especially difficult to watch. Twenty years later it’s still hard to comprehend how a world class athlete can just collapse on the court. To make the situation even more tragic, Gathers’ family is attending the game and you see Hanks’s mom & aunt on the court pleading with doctors to help him.

After Gathers’ initial collapse, he gets up and refuses to lay down despite trainer Chip Shaefer’s (now with the Lakers) recommendations. Eventually he lays down, or collapses, and you can see his chest expanding & contracting as he struggles to breath. Gathers passes away soon after at a local hospital. Officially, Hank Gathers died from cardiomyopathy and an autopsy showed that he was not taking his medications.

The LMU team, the university, and legions of basketball fans are left wondering how to grieve, and process what has happened. After Gathers’ funeral, the story takes another turn as the LMU players decide to continue their season by participating in the NCAA tournament.

Somehow basketball itself is used as a way to grieve and pay tribute to Gathers. Bo Kimble honors Hank by shooting his first free throw of every game left-handed. Kimble leads LMU (through defending champion Michigan) to the Elite Eight where they succumb to the eventual champion UNLV.

Westhead resigns when the season is over. Like any other responsible authority figure, I’m sure he wonders if he could have somehow saved Hank. The Gathers family sues LMU eventually settling for $1.2 million. In the documentary, Hank’s brother regrets the lawsuit and places blame on our litigious culture. Westhead kept coaching, eventually winning a WNBA Championship in 2007.

Paul Westhead coaches the women's basketball team at the University of Oregon. On February 19th, 2000, LMU retired the jersey numbers of both Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble.