Lakers-Suns Game 5 Preview & Breaking the 2-3 Zone

 (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

After losing another game to the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers should be very concerned. The loss by only nine points in Game 4 hides the fact that the Lakers, if it weren't for Kobe Bryant hitting ridiculous (& bad) shots, should have lost by 20+ points.The Lakers are not doing a good job guarding the pick-and-roll and have been unable to adjust to the Suns' 2-3 zone.

106 points for the Lakers is good, but they cannot expect to win if they give up 115. To make matters worse, Nash & Stoudemire didn't have huge games. Instead, the Suns' bench did the majority of the damage in the second and fourth quarters.

When defending against the Suns, you need long/athletic shootings guard and small forwards to rotate to shooters, fill gaps, and pick-up big men on screen-rolls. The Lakers only have three players (Odom, Bryant, and Brown) who fit this build. 

The Lakers’ zone offense also leaves them in a bad spot because they usually have a guard in the corner (Fisher) who has to catch up to a guard that’s defensing near or above the free-throw line. This has lead to some bad switches and open perimeter shots for the Suns as the Lakers scramble to match-up on defense.

LA can try a few different things to mix things up against the Suns. I'm not sure if any of these options will shut the Suns down but they're decent options since what they're currently doing isn't working:

1.    Switch Kobe and Fisher so that Kobe guards Nash & Fisher guards Jason Richardson. This could slow down the Nash-Stoudemire pick-and-roll. The Suns could then try to post Richardson against Fisher. This is okay because it gets the Suns out of pick-and-roll situations, prevents Richardson from launching 3's, and might not work because Fisher is a crafty defender.

2.    Put Ron Artest on Nash or Stoudemire. Artest might be able to do a decent job on Stoudemire either in the post or if he has to switch onto Stoudemire when he's guarding Nash. Right now, Artest isn’t too involved in the defense since he’s just chasing Hill and Richardson around the perimeter.

3.    A really radical option would be to play some sort of zone (3-2?). This seems like a good idea since the high screen-roll is pointless against two guards who will just switch. The problem with the zone is that it often yields open shots & a variety of opportunities for teams like the Suns with good wing players (Richardson, Barbosa, Hill, & Dudley). But trying this out for a few plays, LA could slow the Suns down for a few moments and would also allow Gasol & Bynum to stay near the paint where they can protect the hoop. The Suns' offense is designed to expose their advantage over Bynum & Gasol who have trouble guarding Stoudemire when he's dribbling at them.

Bynum

Yes, everyone knows that Bynum is injured. His injury should be a major concern for the Lakers for both the remainder of this series and if they advance to face Orlando or Boston. His knee is preventing him from extending and making quick moves on offense. Bynum could be causing problems if he could rotate on defense and also move quickly through the Suns' zone defense. They could try using Powell and Benga who could cause some problems.

Breaking the 2-3 Zone

Despite the Suns' 2-3 zone, the Lakers have still been productive in both road games (109 and 106 points). So, again, the zone is a problem but they need to make more improvements on defense. Here’s an excellent breakdown of what the Lakers are doing wrong:

A few takeaways from the video:

- The key to breaking the zone is the decision made by the player who gets it in the high post. He will have two or three defenders converging on him (see video at 0:30) so he can either drive or pass to someone cutting. Since the Lakers are still getting used to attacking the zone, the high-post player has been reluctant or uncomfortable with making the right move.

- At 1:49 Ron Artest panics as defenders converge on him. He then takes a shot while driving into three defenders. If Ron passes to the right,Lamar Odom is wide open and Grant Hill will be forced to chase Lamar or leave Gasol open under the hoop.

- At 2:22 Lamar cuts too far to the low-block and the makes another mistake when he meets the pass to high and far from the high-post. If he stays in the paint and comes to the high-post he has an open shot or he can drive right to the hoop. Instead of moving into the high-post he moved into positions used in the triangle offense.

- At 4:42 Kobe gets the ball at the high-post as two defenders converge on him. For the Lakers to beat the zone Lamar must cut more aggressively into the weak-side opening. At this point, Kobe could have made an easy pass to Lamar. But Lamar didn’t cut quickly and the pass is more difficult because Dragic gets in the way. If the pass gets through, Lamar has a bunch options since a 3-2 advantage has been created. He can shoot, drive, or pass to Shannon Brown who will be open in the corner. Again, the main problem is that the Lakers are not comfortable with attacking the 2-3 zone. Lamar is too slow or reluctant to cut and Kobe’s not sure he can make the pass even though it looks like there’s enough room.

The 2-3 zone can be broken when two things happen:

1) The ball is entered into the high-post

2) The ball then gets swung to someone cutting through the other high-post on the weak-side. This player will then have a 3-2 advantage where he can shoot, pass, or drive.

Game 5 Prediction

My earlier prediction of the Lakers winning in six could still happen. But as I anticipated in that post, the injury to Bynum is really hurting LA. In Game 5, look for the Lakers to play better defense and do a better job of executing on offense. I don’t anticipate that the Suns’ bench will be as productive as they were in Game 4. The Lakers will also make a few adjustments, shoot better, and take advantage of playing at home.

Did the Orlando Magic Take Control of the East Conf. Finals by Winning Game 4?

  (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

The Orlando Magic avoided elimination with an exciting 96-92 OT win over the Boston Celtics.in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After three forgettable games, the Magic won by controlling the tempo & forcing the Celtics to defend more than just Dwight Howard posting up.

What changed?

The obvious adjustment the Magic made was running the pick-and-roll instead of posting Howard on the low block. The Magic predominantly ran double screen-roll with a small (like Rashard Lewis) and Howard screening for Nelson above the 3-point line. From this pick-and-roll Nelson penetrated and either found teammates on the perimeter or found Howard under the hoop with a mismatch.

Why was this so important?

By forcing the Celtics to switch or trap the screen-roll, the Magic give Nelson the opportunity to pass to a cutting Howard (trap) or drive/shoot on a bigger defender like (Perkins, Davis, or Garnett). On the drive Nelson also has the option of passing to an open shooter (Lewis, Barnes or Redick), finishing mid-range jumper or lay-up, or throwing a lob to Howard.

This tactic exposes the Celtics age, slowness, and lack of athleticism. By making the Celtics work harder on defense, the Magic also prevent the Celtics from getting fastbreak points and  using all of their energy on offense. This also plays to the Magic's strength of moving the ball, attacking the rim, and shooting 3-pointers. In Game 4 Howard and Nelson were the only two Magic players to have breakthrough games but this could change very easily at home in Game 5.

What the analysts, pundits, and experts missed

This was not about heart, effort, pride, or intensity. Orlando had the same strategy for three games and it only briefly worked in Game 2. If you continue with a failed strategy of course you’re going to keep losing! I was surprised that it took them three games to figure this out. What’s more surprising and impressive is that in one only one game they were able to quickly adjust and win in Game 4. Normally, a major strategy change takes longer to effectively implement.

Who’s got control of the series now?

I actually think that Orlando has control of the series now that they’ve figured what works against the Celtics, have some confidence, and have a favorable schedule. While my earlier prediction of the Magic winning in six was obviously wrong, they do have a pretty good chance at winning in 7.

Even though they won Game 4, the Magic didn’t play well outside of Nelson, Redick, & Howard. They didn’t get any contributions from Pietrus, Carter, Williams, and Gortat/Bass. Luckily Lewis finally had a decent game, but he can do much better than 13 points on 4-10 shooting.

Before Game 4 and excluding the two missed free throws in Game 2, Vince Carter was the Magic’s best option (18 pts/game) in the first three games. Unfortunately, those missed free throws and disappearing in Game 4 will be what Carter will be known for if he doesn’t  find away to deliver for the Magic. No more fading jumpers and scowling at the officials when they don’t call a foul. Go in and try to dunk every attempt. The Celtics don’t have shot blockers for dribble penetration and they don’t want to leave 3-point shooters or Howard open.

Through the rest of the series, there will only be one day off in between games. The longer the series goes, the more the schedule favors the Magic. If the series goes to Game 7 then the two teams will have to play five games in nine days with two of the last three games played in Orlando. 

Lakers-Suns 2010 West Finals Preview- Lakers in 5 or 6

(Getty Images)

After a lifetime (alright, it's only been a week) the Lakers & Suns return to the court tonight in the Western Conference Finals. LA won the season series 3-1 but, apparently, you can throw that stat out the window because the Suns are a new team now that Amare isn't being shopped around. I don't buy this, or any other, arguments that have Phoenix winning or taking the Lakers past 6 games.

The Lakers are still bigger than the Suns and have the personnel to win at the Suns' own game of increasing the tempo. During the regular season, the Lakers scored 100+ in all four games and even held the Suns under 100 twice. Much has been made of the Suns' bench, but the Lakers' bench is just as good- they just don't get as many minutes since Phil plays his starters more. Since the tempo will increase, look for the Lakers to use, and get more out of, their bench. 

Phil is concerned about the Suns as indicated by his comments questioning Steve Nash's dribbling. When asked if the Lakers were having trouble simulating Steve Nash, he accused Nash of a carrying violation- “Yeah, because you can’t carry the ball like he does in practice.... can’t pick that ball up and run with it.”

(tried to embed this video directly from NBA.com, but the embed curiously pointed to another a video soon after embedding.....conspiracy theorists, add this to your list)

This is a compliment to Nash & the Suns because it shows he's concerned with them. Jackson needled Durant before the OKC series but had nothing to say about Deron Williams- who also clearly carry's the ball- when the Lakers played the Jazz.

 (watch Nash carry not once, but twice)

Phil's correctly pointing out that Nash does carry the ball on most pick-and-rolls. When he goes around the screen, carrying the ball gives Nash two options- 1) if defender #2 steps up, bounce-pass between defenders and hit the screener 2) if defender #2 sags, attack and get into the defense or take a wide open jump shot. The carry (along with a moving screen) creates a 2-1 opportunity where Nash's defender is completely wiped out. This dribbling violation gives Nash more momentum to penetrate or creates more time/space to expose the defense. 

That everyone is talking about this means that Phil's getting what he wants- the fans, officials, & media will all watch Nash a little more carefully. Besides, Phil's an expert on the carrying violation after watching MJ for so many years. But this may backfire on Phil if the referees watch Kobe coming over a screen. What happened to David Stern, who threatened to fine coaches/players for commenting about the officiating? 

LA's main weakness is injuries to Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum. The Lakers need the length of Bynum to cause matchup problems against the Suns- 10 points & 8 rebounds should do the trick. Unfortunately, Bynum's knee (torn cartilage!) is giving him problems & Kobe hasn't played in a week. If both players are injured then LA will have trouble rotating on defense and keeping up with Phoenix. 

Eastern Conf. Finals Preview & Defending LeBron (because no one cares about Orlando/Boston)

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Yes the Eastern Conference finals is about to start, but let’s talk about LeBron since the Cavs' loss is more fun (and higher in importance according to the media) to talk about than anything on the court.

And while I’m at it, I’ll pile on LeBron like everyone else. After all, he must be a quitter since he had only 27 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists on an “off-night” in Game 6. Sure he made a bunch of mistakes (9 turnovers!) & shot poorly, but when Rondo posted similar numbers, the discussion was if Rondo was the best point guard in the league. Has any other small-forward ever compiled these stats & received so much criticism?

What happened to LeBron?

The Cavs lost because LeBron’s elbow prevented him from hitting outside shots. In Game 6, he hit two 3’s early in the 4^th quarter but once again shot below 40% (8/21) for the entire game. As I stated in my last post, the Cavs can’t win if LeBron shoots this poorly. 

There are no other rational explanations for why he played so poorly. Unfortunately, his refusal to acknowledge the impact of his elbow injury leaves the door open to plenty of wild & irrational explanations for his poor performance.

Did Cleveland's management & Coach Mike Brown make all the right moves?

Yes and no. With a healthy LeBron the Cavs could (can?) win a title with the talent they have, although it’s not an overwhelming roster that can step up when one major player is injured. And maybe GM Danny Ferry did everything possible; but at the end of the day they have less talent than the remaining teams in the playoffs. 

Their roster is loaded with players that play well with LeBron, but have trouble attacking top defenses on their own. Mo Williams (Cavs #2 scorer?) was very inconsistent against the Celtics- good numbers in Game 1 & 6 (21 pts on 50% shooting) but awful in Games 2-5 (9.5 pts on 32% shooting). Against the Celtics, #3-scorer Antawn Jamison averaged 12 points on 42% shooting. His offensive efficiency was much better in the regular season (15.8 pts on 48% fgs) and in the first round (19.4 pts on 51% fgs) against the Bulls. And as good as the Williams & Jamison are, they don’t match the combos that the remaining playoff teams have- Kobe/Gasol, Nash/Stoudemire, Howard/Lewis/Carter, & Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen.

Against the Celtics, the Cavs played unusual line-ups and combinations that didn’t look comfortable on the floor together. J.J. Hickson started for much of the season (77 games) & then averaged only 9 minutes against the Celtics. And the Cavs never really had a solid rotation involving Ilgauskas, O’Neal, Varejao, & Jamison. They kept trying to find the right defense but the Celtics (especially Garnett) exploited O’Neal, Ilgauskas, & Jamison either in the pick-and-roll or post.

Mike Brown is a solid coach with a healthy LeBron. However, two issues became evident against the Celtics:

1. An inability to adjust. With LeBron not playing well, the Cavs failed to make substantial changes. You have to skip Game 3 from any analysis because that was with a healthy LeBron. Through five games they made very few changes to move the ball faster and get other players more involved. They ran many of the same sets even though the results did not support doing so (two blowout losses in Cleveland). They made some changes in Game 6 (Shaq on Garnett) but the changes came too late. The Cavs just didn’t have enough time to integrate major changes in their offense so they still (incorrectly) relied on LeBron to create shots for everyone else.  
2. Personnel integration. The Ilgauskas-Jamison deal added talent to the Cavs but Coach Brown was unable to find an affective 8/9 man rotation against the Celtics. Ilgauskas played in Game 1(5 mins), Game 5 (14 mins) and Game 6 (14mins) but sat on the bench during Games 2-4. J.J. Hickson played 10+ mins in the first three games but then only played a few mins in the last three (~5mins in games 4/5 and then 10 seconds in Game 6). Players need consistent minutes to play well together. Playing only a few minutes together, or skipping games completely, hurts on-court chemistry.

It’s not clear who (if anybody) should be blamed for these two problems. Some of the blame could be given to both Mike Brown & Danny Ferry. Mike Brown used the players that Danny Ferry gave him, but maybe Brown should have done a better job managing minutes and making adjustments. Then again, Danny Ferry could have acquired players that fit together better. Or maybe if LeBron’s healthy then this discussion doesn’t even happen.

 Should LeBron stay?

From a basketball perspective, no. He could go to a number of other NBA teams that have more talent, are younger, and have better cap situations. But I have a feeling he’ll stay in Cleveland because he’s loyal to Ohio.

Orlando-Boston Preview

Orlando wins in 5 or 6. No one matches up well with the Magic who hit 3’s, attack, and rotate the ball very well. The Magic are also really hot right now having swept the Hawks & Bobcats.

In 2009, the Magic defeated the Celtics in the Eastern Semifinals after a resounding 101-82 Game 7 win in Boston. Since then, the Celtics’ big three have gotten a year older, while Orlando, with Nelson (now healthy), Howard, & Lewis, have added an NBA Finals appearance & Vince Carter to their resume. Mickael Pietrus & Matt Barnes have played very well at small forward in place of Hedo Turkoglu.

The Celtics will have trouble containing Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, & Pietrus on the perimeter and when they drive to the hoop after the ball is rotated. This is where Orlando can exploit its speed and a slow-rotating Celtics defense.

Kevin Garnett will once again be a major problem for the Magic. Garnett is too big for Lewis so the Magic may have to put Gortat or Howard on him. The Magic may also have problems with Rondo, depending on how they decide to guard him.

For the second consecutive season, too much speed & 3-point shooting will overwhelm the Celtics. 

Cavs Need a Healthy LeBron to Beat the Celtics

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

My last post explained why LeBron's injured elbow is so critical to the Cavs success.  When his elbow was better in game 3, he & the Cavs dominated. But his poor shooting during the other four games largely explains why the Cavs are facing elimination in Game 6 against the Celtics.

Game 6 Preview

The Cavs can only win if LeBron is healthy. And the odds of that are low when you look at what's transpired so far. LeBron has played poorly with the exception of Game 3. Through five games he's averaging 26.8 pts on 46% shooting. The 46% shooting is low for James (50% during reg. season) but still respectable. But if you take out Game 3 (14-22 fgs & 38 pts) his numbers drop considerably to 19.2 pts on 40% shooting (29/71). So really he's struggled in four of five games. 

Both Cavs' wins have come off of at least two days of rest (Game 1 on 3 days rest and Game 3 off 2 days rest). So it appears that LeBron needs more than the one day of rest between Game 5 and 6. 

It's one thing to play with an injury but it's an entirely different challenge when that injury is to your shooting arm. Also, the elbow is critical to LeBron's jump-shot. If you look at his shooting motion (above), his elbow is bent outward instead of being straight. Since his elbow isn't straight, his shot requires that his elbow control the force and direction of his release. An injured elbow explains why he's been unable to shoot confidently from the perimeter.

It's okay for LeBron to play with an injury. If he just acknowledges the injury then his teammates & coaching staff can adjust accordingly. Instead the Cavs haven't changed and they continue to look sluggish and unable to attack the Celtics sagging defense. Either his injury has to get better or the Cavs must change their offense if they want to challenge the Celtics.

What the Celtics have done right so far-

• Control game tempo. They don't want to run with Cavs who are younger and feed off of fastbreaks and attacking the hoop. 
• Garnett dominating in the post. Jamison is a small 6'9" trying to challenge a lengthy Garnett at  6'11". Garnett gets whatever shot he wants against Jamison, he's just that much bigger. This isn't Jamison's fault, the Cavs have to adjust their defense. Varejao is probably their best bet against Garnett. Try starting Varejao & moving Parker to the bench.
• Keep LeBron out of the paint. It's not the Celtics' fault that LeBron is reluctant to take outside shots. If he stays out on the perimeter then the Celtics can cover or double everyone else.
• Rondo causing havoc. He's putting up huge numbers and taking what the Cavs are giving him (more on this later). What's most impressive is his decision making & that he hasn't forced the issue even though he's wide open on every screen.    

What the Cavs have done right-

• Make Rondo beat them. Rondo has put up huge numbers but the Cavs will take their chances with Rondo trying to score instead of Pierce, Garnett, & Allen all scoring 18+. The strategy of letting Rondo score while containing everyone else would work if the Cavs were playing better on offense. 
• Containing Pierce (13.6 pts on 35% shooting through 5 games). With Rondo dribbling so much, Pierce hasn't had the ball much and has been a non-factor against the Cavs. Certainly, LeBron's defense has also made things difficult for Paul.

NBA Conf. Semifinals Heating Up- Cavs look to Regroup & Lakers Look to Close

Predictions & Previews for Games 3 & 4 of the NBA Conference Semifinals-

Cavs-Celtics

Tied at 1-1, Cleveland is in a tough spot with two upcoming games in Boston. The Cavs would be favorites but LeBron's elbow has slowed him down in the last two games. He put up good numbers in Game 1 but he's been reluctant to shoot from the outside in both games. 

Joshua Gunter, The Plain Dealer

LeBron must be more aggressive from the perimeter if Cleveland wants to take control of the series. His ability to break down defenses requires that opponents challenge his outside shot. Right now the Celtics are backing off LeBron since he's reluctant to shoot. This allows the Celtics' defense to counter his penetration without giving up good looks to everyone else. The other Cavs (Z, Moon, West, & Anthony Parker) are much more effective when they're attacking a scrambling & slow-rotating Celtics defense. 

If LeBron's elbow is better (after what seems like a week off) then Cleveland will win both games. If not, look for a split in Boston and the series to move back to Clevland tied at 2-2

Orlando-Atlanta

This series is all but over with both teams heading in opposing directions after Game 2.  Mentally, the Hawks imploded during the third & fourth quarters of Game 2. Josh Smith lost his composure & Joe Johnson dribbles to much slowing down the rest of the offense. Al Horford, the Hawks' third or fourth option on offense, was their best option in Game 2 (24 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 9-13 fgs, and only 1 turnover). And he had to score most of his points against Dwight Howard, the Defensive Player of the Year. Teams that advance in the playoffs don't have this many chemistry & mental issues. Look for the teams to split in Atlanta & Orlando to finish the series in Game 5. 

Los Spurs-Los Suns

With any Suns' playoff series you have to wonder if their up-tempo style will work. So far it has as the Suns are heading to San Antonio with a 2-0 lead. I thought the Spurs would win in 5 or 6 but that's looking less likely as they've been unable to dictate tempo and keep the score under 100. For the Suns to win they need to score 105+ points in San Antonio, which i don't think they'll be able to. Look for the momentum to swing back in the Spurs' favor with two home wins this weekend.

Lakers-Jazz

This series is all but over as the Jazz haven't grown any taller since the series started. They've played valiantly but they just don't have a chance against the length of Bynum, Gasol, & Odom. The Lakers will probably fall asleep during Game 3 or 4 so that they have to finish the Jazz in Game 5. I'm still impressed with what the Jazz have accomplished especially when they're achievements are compared against Denver & Atlanta's- two teams achieving so much less with much more talent- inability to put up a good fight. Give a lot of credit to Jerry Sloan, Williams, Boozer, Millsap, and Jazz management. 

Bad Idea: Los Suns to Mix Playoffs & Politics Tonight

Deirdre Hamill/The Arizona Republic

Tonight in Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs, the Phoenix Suns will wear alternative jerseys that say "Los Suns" to voice their displeasure over the Arizona's tough new immigration law. Suns' managing partner Steve Sarver explained-

"The frustration with the federal government's failure to deal with the issue of illegal immigration resulted in passage of a flawed state law. However intended, the result of passing this law is that our basic principles of equal rights and protection under the law are being called into question, and Arizona's already struggling economy will suffer even further setbacks at a time when the state can ill-afford them."

"Hopefully, it's all going to get worked out and the federal government will step in and there'll be a national solution. I realize that immigration is a problem and we have issues that need to be dealt with. I just don't think this bill accomplishes that," said the team executive. "I don't think it's the right way to handle the immigration problem."

Regardless of your political viewpoint, this is not a good move for the NBA and the Suns, who are trying to win an important playoff series. Yes, the Suns' Steve Nash said that the team voted for the alternative jerseys but they're representing the organization & the NBA so we don't if everyone involved would agree to this. Do you think all Suns' employees & NBA players support this protest? I doubt it.

The bigger question involves if an employer can mandate that employees support their political messages. I'm not a legal expert, but somehow i don't think employers have this power. As an NBA player you cannot question the officiating but you're expected to support a political viewpoint that you might disagree with, how can this happen?

  

From a basketball perspective this has its own problems- what if you're a player, owner, or other employee that doesn't support this move or simply doesn't want to express political views at work? Do you really want to go against the majority & stir-up discontent in the locker room? How would this impact team chemistry? Yes, the political issue is much more important than a bball game but it can have a negative impact on the game. 

Enough About Politics, Get to the BBall

Where are all the Lamar Odom haters? Or are they just around when things go wrong and they need to blame somebody? In Game 2 against the Jazz, Lamar had 11 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, & 3 blocks in only 28 minutes.

Laker fans, don't worry Sasha Vujacic will soon return to bolster the bench. His 2.8 points & 30% 3-point shooting will definitely be an upgrade form Ron Ron launching 3's (1-7 in game 2 & 0-3 in game 1).